I agree it would be (not will be, would be) interesting to see how the Milei experiment plays out. Same for our Trump experiment. But Eric's point is valid. How do we track it? Because Claude (and the rest) are slightly behind, you can't trust them with recent events. [⛤] So I tried to find something like Consensus.app, which emphasizes citing its sources along with its queries. Consensus is focused on science. [⛧] I didn't find one for economics/politics. But I didn't look very hard. My media diet consists largely of smaller sites over places like the NYT, WaPo, BBC, etc. But I can't really trust any of them. So I have to continually run everything in parallax. It's exhausting. I long for the good old days (Am I MAGA?) when I trusted institutions ... even if I understand that in the good old days, it was *me* that was broken, still am really. The institutions were always untrustworthy.
[⛤] Can't trust them at all, actually. Even their summaries are at least biased, if not confidently asserted bullsh¡t. Before I post a summary (by Claude or any other), I have to read through it and `grep` the transcript for at least a few of the factoids just to be sure *I'm* not posting bullsh¡t. [⛧] https://consensus.app/results/?q=Fact%20check%20the%20claims%20of%20Javier%20Milei%20as%20President%20of%20Argentina.&pro=on On 11/21/24 03:31, Pieter Steenekamp wrote:
I think we all wonder what makes a "good" government. Javier Milei seems to think the best government is no government at all — an anarchist dream! He’s very proud of how things are going so far, but honestly, who knows what’s really happening in Argentina? I’m also intrigued by Noam Chomsky’s idea of an anarchist government. It’s funny because while both are called "anarchist," they couldn’t be more different — like night and day, or maybe coffee and tea. As for me, I’m not stuck on one idea. I like to see what actually works in the real world. That’s why I find the "Argentinian experiment" so fascinating. I’m keen to see how it plays out — not just for the economy, but for how people are actually living. Are their lives getting better? Sure, "wellness" is tricky to measure, but surely being able to meet your basic needs is a good start, right? On Thu, 21 Nov 2024 at 12:43, Santafe <desm...@santafe.edu <mailto:desm...@santafe.edu>> wrote: So the key distillation is that: 1. The public-sector layoffs are real and completed (so, cemented in the past). 2. The offsetting private-sector new jobs are aspirational, something the “administration aims to” accomplish as a consequence of “stimulat[ing] economic growth”. The quotes from Milei use the past tense, as if this were also (like the layoffs) completed, but the AI summary unpacks them as aspirational. Point 2 is a pretty standard neoliberal claim, on which there are many variants. Where the rubber meets the road, then, is determining whether the projected outcomes have been happening, if so how far along they are relative to the claims, and to what extent the causation (stimulation) is supported. Increasingly, going forward, for non-experts to figure out what data are reliable (especially on macro-things), and what kinds of causal analysis are as-valid-as-we-can-expect in these fields, will be both important and difficult. About things that don’t really matter, I don’t mind idly speculating, and it is a fun exercise in arm-chair lucubration. But for stuff that matters, I am increasingly bothered by the fact that I don’t have reliable tracks to do almost-anything in these areas. The thing that fights off a program of atomizing the society, and making people cynical and apathetic, is having the ability to get things right by methods you know and can repeat. Would be nice to build that up. Eric > On Nov 20, 2024, at 7:28 PM, Pieter Steenekamp <piet...@randcontrols.co.za <mailto:piet...@randcontrols.co.za>> wrote: > > I asked MS Copilot and she gave the following answer: > > Me: > Please help clarify this for me? In an interview, Javier Milei, the President of Argentina, made two seemingly contradictory claims: (a) 50,000 public employees were laid off, and (b) not a single job was lost. How can both statements be true? What actually happened in Argentina over the past year? > MS Copilot: > Javier Milei's statements might seem contradictory at first, but they can be understood in the context of his broader economic policies and the specific actions taken by his administration. > > What Happened in Argentina > > • Layoffs of Public Employees: > > • Javier Milei's administration laid off a significant number of public employees. Reports indicate that around 50,000 state employees were laid off as part of his efforts to reduce government spending and streamline the public sector2. This move was part of a broader strategy to cut public spending and reduce the national deficit. > > • Economic Context: > > • Argentina has been facing severe economic challenges, including high inflation and a struggling economy. Milei's administration has implemented various austerity measures to address these issues, which included reducing the number of public sector employees. > > • Private Sector Job Creation: > > • Despite the layoffs in the public sector, Milei's administration has been focused on creating jobs in the private sector. The claim that "not a single job was lost" likely refers to the overall employment situation, where the administration aims to offset public sector job losses with private sector job creation. This approach is intended to stimulate economic growth and reduce the burden on the state. > > Summary > > While the layoffs of public employees are a fact, the claim that "not a single job was lost" can be interpreted as an assertion that the overall employment situation has not worsened due to efforts to create jobs in the private sector. This reflects Milei's broader economic strategy of reducing government expenditure while promoting private sector growth. > > Does this help clarify the situation for you? > > References: > 1reason.com2buenosairesherald.com3www.batimes.com.ar <http://1reason.com2buenosairesherald.com3www.batimes.com.ar> > > > On Thu, 21 Nov 2024 at 01:02, Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org <mailto:r...@elf.org>> wrote: > How can you have "laid off 50,000 public employees so far [...] while [...] not losing jobs."? Are public employees not working at jobs? Are jobs not lost if you destroy them on purpose? > > -- rec -- > > On Wed, Nov 20, 2024 at 10:05 AM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com <mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: > Axios may be on to something. MSNBC is more like therapy than news. > > > > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> on behalf of Pieter Steenekamp <piet...@randcontrols.co.za <mailto:piet...@randcontrols.co.za>> > Date: Wednesday, November 20, 2024 at 8:57 AM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Javier Milei > > Claude deserves some applause for doing a solid job summarizing the podcast — well done! The conclusion, "As with any extreme ideology, a degree of skepticism is warranted until real-world evidence validates the theories," seems pretty spot-on. It’s a good reminder that bold ideas often need to prove themselves in the wild. > > I’m genuinely curious to see how things play out in the next year or so. Let’s be honest, Argentina could really use a win when it comes to improving things. Fingers crossed for fewer missteps and more meaningful strides forward! > > > > On Wed, 20 Nov 2024 at 18:03, glen <geprope...@gmail.com <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>> wrote: > > Nearly 2 hrs? No thanks. Here's Claude's summation, FWIW. > > -------------------- > Claim 1: Milei says he came to understand the ideas of freedom and Austrian economics in 2013-2014 after reading works by Rothbard, Mises, Hayek and others. This caused a "revolution" in his thinking. > > Claim 2: Milei describes himself as an anarcho-capitalist in principle, but a minarchist in practice given real-world constraints. He wants to minimize the state as much as possible. > > Claim 3: Upon taking office, Milei says Argentina had annual inflation heading towards 17,000%, poverty near 50%, fiscal deficits of 15% of GDP, and was on the brink of hyperinflation and economic collapse. > > Claim 4: Milei says his government achieved fiscal balance in its first month, cut ministries by over half, laid off 50,000 public employees so far, cut social plans, and reduced inflation from a 17,000% annual rate to 2.4% in six months, all while avoiding price controls and not losing jobs. > > Claim 5: Milei's goal is to make Argentina the freest country in the world through deregulation and free market reforms. He believes this will dramatically increase GDP per capita. > > Claim 6: Milei is aligned geopolitically with the US and Israel, which he sees as representing freedom and Western liberal democracy against autocracy. He wants stronger trade ties with the US. > > Claim 7: Milei believes free market capitalism is the best system for human cooperation and prosperity. He rejects the notion of market failures and says neoclassical economics enables harmful government interventions. > > In summary, Milei makes bold claims about rapidly improving Argentina's economy through free market policies. More data over time is needed to fully assess the results. His broader philosophical arguments express common libertarian/anarcho-capitalist views, which are influential in some circles but rejected by many mainstream economists and experts. As with any extreme ideology, a degree of skepticism is warranted until real-world evidence validates the theories. > > On 11/20/24 01:29, Pieter Steenekamp wrote: >> I’m not entirely convinced this group will be moonwalking with joy over Javier Milei’s actions, but I must admit I’m intrigued by what he claims to have achieved in Argentina over the past year, as he shared on Lex Fridman’s podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk>>. >
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