On 1/27/22 5:17 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04281-w
If only ubiquitous, inexpensive energy was the solution to (or the lack
of it the root rather than one of the symptoms of) our overshoot problems.
I believe it is yet another installment in what seems to be a series of
piecewise Sigmoid curves... exponential growth that gives way to
(self-limiting) asymptotic "saturation" which then yields a qualitative
jump to the next paradigm/technology. (from human power to animal power
to wind/river to coal-steam to internal combustion/turbine to fission to
fusion)... each one with it's "horseshit parable" of unintended (but
surely predictable in some sense) consequences.
We are better at kicking the can down the road or engaging in a
Red-Queen style "race against ourselves" than anything.
The electrification of many things *does* relieve a bunch of endemic
problems to fossil-fuels whle offering some of the efficiencies of scale
(gas fired turbine is more efficient than an oversized V8 ICE idling at
every stoplight and in the parking lot to keep the HVAC/Radio running in
spite of the losses to transmission/storage/motors/etc.) and while I
might enumerate some of the more obvious un(der) spoken to problems, I
doubt even the strongest opponents (from the dark-brown right and the
bright green right) can have a good understanding of what
unintended/expected consequences are implied.
I've become quite the techno/progress-luddite in spite of having a
strong affinity to both. I studied Physics and joined LANL and worked
on myriad projects (still do) with the illusion that if I helped just
kick the can a little harder or help the red queen run a little faster,
it would change the nature of those games fundamentally.
I can't see that it has. Musk is trying to kick our cans from fossil
fuel extraction/combustion/spills to Lithium (and heavy metals)
extraction/discarding as well as the can of an out of-balance biosphere
on earth to terraforming Mars (with care and thoughtful intention and no
unexpected side-effects?).
It is all well out of my control (except my own
habits/consumption/behaviour) but I can't help noting that most if not
all of my "best ideas" have turned out to be variations on "kick the
can" and "red queen".
Gramble,
- Steve
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