Hi,
I don't know exactly when it begins to do bad moves. However, I know that
after several hours, the estimated winning rate converges to 1 or 0, with
crazy principal variations, and the cause is low resolution of single
floats. In this study, it should no be a big factor of unscalability given
the number of simulations.

Sylvain

2008/1/29, terry mcintyre <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
> Sylvain, in the download notes, you mention that Mogo has some troubles
> with "very long" timescales, due to the low resolution of single floats. Do
> you have any estimate of how many simulations would lead to this situation?
>
>
>
> Terry McIntyre <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: Sylvain Gelly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: computer-go <computer-go@computer-go.org>
> Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2008 10:36:38 AM
> Subject: Re: [computer-go] 19x19 Study
>
> but not linearly and you can see a nice gradual curve in the plot.
> >
> > Now we have something we can argue about for weeks.   Why is it not
> > mostly linear?   Could it be the memory issue I just mentioned?
> >
>
> Hi Don and all participants to that study, that is very interesting!
>
> The memory constrains are certainly a valid hypothesis, especially the
> default settings of the release are rather conservative on that side,
> because it seemed better to have a weaker player than begin to make the
> player's machine swapping... Those settings are rather fitting your memory
> constrains as well, so it is fine.
>
> Reading your email and looking at the curve, I wonder if one possible
> explanation could be an artifact on how the ratings are computed? My
> question is: what curve would we see for that study if the involved players
> were exactly linearly scalable? That seems silly, but I wondered if there
> were an underestimating of higher levels, because of the way the bayeselo
> works. I am also looking at the curve after the 5-6th level (~gnugo), as
> behavior may be different for very low levels.
>
> I don't know if my hypothesis makes sense.
> Sylvain
>
>
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