On 11 Apr 2007 at 14:37, Dan Minette wrote:

> > No, I'm saying that the 50 billion figure is inflated, because it
> > assumes zero savings from using todays green technologies.
> 
> What savings?  In what areas are green technologies more cost effective?
> The estimates that I've seen try to incorporate savings for things like new
> planes being more fuel efficient.  I'd be more than willing, heck I'd be
> very interested, in trying to look at the cost benefit numbers.  

You cannot account for every penny spent on green technologies as a 
loss. Quite apart from actual efficientcy savings, investment in 
these technologies would create jobs, and there would be longer term 
health benefits from reduction in air poloution, etc.

35 billion as a base figure
 
> > And will drop, if anything. Without micro-G, you cannot make cost-
> > efficient solar pannels. Solar heaters are something else entirely,
> > and are not doing as badly, but have a lesser impact.
> 
> And large scale micro-gee being cost effective will require an
> unanticipatable breakthrough.

Yes, quite. Still, there are possibilities in the forseeable future 
for a mission like a capture of an asteroid in a near-earth orbit. I 
don't think we can depend on them, though.


>  
> > The just-in-time, consumer society of today is a fragile construct,
> > based on supply lines which global warming will cut, 
> 
> How will supply lines be cut?  
> 
There is allready disruptions in sea travel due to shifting weather 
patterns. Supply lines which rely on delivery on a regular, short 
basis are very vulnrable to disruption, and they are based on a 
restricted set of factors.

> Why wouldn't society just adapt?  We both know that global warming won't hit
> in one day, month, year, or even decade.  It will be a drain on the world
> economy, but I don't see how it would cause social collapse.

Um. There are rapid feedback cycles involved in warming. The IPCC 
report, *using their own data*, badly understates the rise.

And if an analyst says "you're stuffed", do you hire him again? No, 
you don't. Western culture has a habit of not killing, but firing the 
bearer of bad news. It is only now, allready quite late in the day 
and with unmistakeable signs and climate change allready underway in 
which  even a neutered version of a climate change report can get 
global press!

AndrewC
Dawn Falcon

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