It's interesting that the one country that is testing lots of people (South
Korea) has had a death rate well under 1%.
On Mon, Mar 9, 2020 at 10:27 AM Ken Hohhof <af...@kwisp.com> wrote:
> Corollary: we need to test lots of people, and get the infected ones to
> stay away from nursing homes, cruise ships and unprotected healthcare
> workers.
>
>
>
> And given that kids seem to either not get it, or not get serious
> symptoms, I wonder if they are silently transmitting the virus.
>
>
>
> It does seem so far like transmission within families is almost 100%. Not
> sure how that would change if people were tested and then practiced
> recommended methods to avoid transmitting the virus. Or if it’s too late
> by the time they know, at least for transmission within families in the
> same house.
>
>
>
> The biggest puzzle for me is why the Chinese seem to be having such great
> success now controlling the new case rate. It can’t JUST be the lockdown.
> It’s almost like they have a lot of people that have recovered without
> knowing they had it and are now immune, and that is blocking the virus from
> spreading so fast through a population that now has a certain percent are
> immune. I believe I saw something about it stops when either 50% of the
> population has recovered and is immune, or a vaccine becomes available. I
> don’t know if the 50% number was just an example or a real number, but I
> think the idea was that an epidemic or pandemic needs a certain percentage
> of the population to be susceptible to sustain its spread. The other way
> it stops is if it is so deadly that it kills its host before it can
> spread. I guess SARS was kind of that way. Plus with SARS you weren’t
> very contagious before you showed symptoms. Fewer Typhoid Marys walking
> around. Or taking Amtrak.
>
>
>
> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
> *Sent:* Monday, March 9, 2020 10:01 AM
> *To:* af@af.afmug.com
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus
>
>
>
> Interesting tidbit from the NYT this morning:
>
> *Adam Kucharski, who studies the math behind outbreaks for the London
> School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, recently talked to The Times about
> how people should look at the coronavirus data.*
> *One signal Dr. Kucharski looks for is when the first case in an area is a
> death: “That suggests you had a lot of community transmission already,” he
> said.*
> *“Suppose the fatality rate for cases is about 1 percent, which is
> plausible,” he explained. “If you’ve got a death, then that person probably
> became ill about three weeks ago. That means you probably had about 100
> cases three weeks ago, in reality.”*
> *“In that subsequent three weeks,” he added, “that number could well have
> doubled, then doubled, then doubled again. So you’re currently looking at
> 500 cases, maybe 1,000 cases.”*
>
> My corollary on the above is that if we have that many cases in a
> community, then a lot of people are running around with no clue that they
> have been infected.
>
> bp
>
> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
>
>
>
> On 3/9/2020 6:16 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
>
> We have moved from containment to community mitigation, where the goal is
> to flatten the curve and avoid overloading the healthcare system, and wait
> for a vaccine (no, not imminent). Messaging has not quite caught up with
> this reality, but if you listen to Dr. Anthony Fauci you can figure it out.
>
>
>
> Those of you going to WISPAmerica, stay safe. Wash your hands, and use
> the hand sanitizer that I assume will be everywhere. Maybe take a
> thermometer.
>
>
>
> And Steve, I’m shocked, shocked to hear that your town has Amtrak. Didn’t
> you just get indoor plumbing last year?
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf
> Of *Steve Jones
> *Sent:* Monday, March 9, 2020 7:40 AM
> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com> <af@af.afmug.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus
>
>
>
> Well, my worst nightmare has hit. Turns out a lady from here in town was
> in the car behind this lady and we "exposed"
>
> So that equates to "its here in town now"
>
> I already talked to the OB about this. The wifes having the baby cut from
> her gut on the 18th which has a 3 day recovery in thos hospital. In the
> mean time everybody and their brother is going to be comimg out to the
> hospital because theyre certain they have the deaths. Theyre bringing every
> germ known to man into one place. Hospitals are already infection centers,
> dirty filthy cesspools of disease.
>
> The baby technically only has to be there 24 hours, and im taking it home.
> Wifes on her own at the death center. Herpes will be riding bareback on
> cold viruses after inbreeding with mersa and riding through a puddle of c.
> Diff.
>
>
>
> On Mon, Mar 9, 2020, 6:46 AM Forrest Christian (List Account) <
> li...@packetflux.com> wrote:
>
> Let me see If I can agree with what I think you're saying:
>
>
>
> 1) Currently we're pre-selecting for people who are in a hospital with
> something looking like nCov and which got tested. We don't currently know
> how many people have it but didn't get tested and as such isn't counted as
> an infected person. As we improve our testing ability, we'll find more
> cases which aren't hospitalization (and possible subsequent death) cases,
> pushing the rate lower.
>
>
>
> 2) Because we are testing more we'll also be able to tell that some of the
> cases that we aren't attributing to nCov are actually nCov cases, pushing
> the rate higher.
>
>
>
> Does that describe what you're saying?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Mar 9, 2020 at 5:09 AM Matt Hoppes <
> mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net> wrote:
>
> More people being tested means two things:
>
> 1) the death rate goes way down
> 2) the death rate goes way up, because we currently have folks dying of
> pneumonia that wasn’t the flu.
>
> > On Mar 8, 2020, at 11:30 PM, Mark - Myakka Technologies <m...@mailmt.com>
> wrote:
> >
> > I'm going to Disney World this coming Friday. Went into town this
> > weekend, stopped by 5-6 stores including lunch out. I have an
> > employee going on a cruise next week.
> >
> > We have had two confirmed cases in our county.
> >
> > It is what it is, I'm not going to hide under a rock. Let's keep this
> > in perspective. Currently the total infection rate per 1 million in
> > the US is 1.6. S. Korea has the highest infection rate at 144 per
> > million. That infection rate not death rate. Death rate is even
> > lower.
> >
> > If you are under 50 years old, your death chances are under 0.5%.
> >
> > It is going to go up. Now that both Quest Labs and Labcorp are both
> > doing testing, more people will get tested. More people getting
> > tested, means more people being counted as a case.
> >
> > --
> > Best regards,
> > Mark mailto:m...@mailmt.com
> >
> > Myakka Technologies, Inc.
> > www.Myakka.com
> >
> > ------
> >
> > Sunday, March 8, 2020, 9:51:23 PM, you wrote:
> >
> > MH> You’re really making light of this serious situation aren’t you?
> >
> >>> On Mar 8, 2020, at 9:26 PM, Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> --000000000000216fbc05a061e421
> >>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
> >>>
> >>> welp, guys, was nice knowing you. An amtrak train had apparently
> stopped in
> >>> my town with an infected passenger. Thats the end of that. Already
> took the
> >>> family out to the garden and put them down, now I just wait for sweet
> death.
> >>>
> >>>> On Fri, Mar 6, 2020 at 3:53 PM James Howard <ja...@litewire.net>
> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>> Might want to switch to peeing on them to avoid spreading anything.
> >>>> According to the news stories droplets of saliva and rubbing your
> eyes are
> >>>> the ways it gets spread. Urine might give you even more dominance
> than
> >>>> spit anyway.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> *From:* A
> >
> >
> > --
> > AF mailing list
> > AF@af.afmug.com
> > http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
>
> --
> AF mailing list
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>
>
>
>
> --
>
> - Forrest
>
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>
>
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