Is it me, or is NBC's troubles in prime-time and late night just Déjà vu
from the same time about 30 years ago?
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From: "Kevin G. Barkes" <[email protected]>
Sent: Sunday, January 10, 2010 6:05 PM
To: <[email protected]>
Subject: RE: tv deathwatch, as of February 12: "The Jay Leno Show"
I predict the following.....
1. Conan will be furious and demand out of his contract.
2. Leno will never get the same ratings when he goes back to 11:35 he did
when he left "Tonight", and end up leaving NBC.
3. Fox will use the opportunity to get back into the M-F late night game
(Conan or Jay could do what Joan Rivers and Chevy Chase couldn't do for
Fox)
4. CBS will maintain the number one late night spot, while ABC could
possibly reach out to Conan or Jay, and give Jimmy Kimmel the boot.
It's important to remember that no one wanted this except Zucker and his
demented minions.
The affiliates are thrilled:
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/443208-Affiliates_Like_Late_Night_L
eno.php
And Leno's been nothing but forthright about the situation from the start:
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/366971-Jay_Leno_Talks_Back_An_Exclu
sive_Interview_With_B_C.php
My worthless predictions...
1. Leno at 11:35 will trail Letterman but will regain most of his numbers.
Many people only watched Leno's "Tonight" for the monologue and bits
(Headlines, Jaywalking) anyway.
2. Conan will stay with the Tonight Show. It would be stupid for him to do
anything else. ABC really doesn't want him, Fox can't clear enough
stations,
syndication isn't even a consideration.
He'll lose people from Leno at 11:35, but his numbers will be
substantially
higher than on his old "Late Night."
Leno and Conan have always had a good relationship. I think Conan is
enough
of a pragmatist to appreciate the situation and stay in the game. Both
Leno
and Letterman will retire in just a few years, Tonight will return to
11:35,
and order will be returned to the universe.
3. Kimmel and Ferguson will be unaffected. They're acquired tastes and
have
loyal audiences. Fallon will lose numbers simply because of the later
hour.
4. Carson who?
Regards,
KGB
-----
Kevin G. Barkes
Email: [email protected]
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