On Mon, Apr 6, 2020 at 10:13 AM PGage <[email protected]> wrote:

>
> If Live Shows don’t have to start until May it is not impossible they
> could still go on in some kind of modified way, maybe a little delayed. My
> CA county has extended its stay at home order through the end of April. At
> my hospital we are making telephone appointments into mid May, and it looks
> like they envision us working from home for at least a month, plausibly
> longer. MLB things it is going to start back in June. It’s hard to imagine
> thousands of people in a studio audience watching a concert in Los Angeles
> any time soon the way things are now (maybe no audience, but just cast and
> crew who pass health checks?) though it would have been hard to imagine how
> we do things now two months ago.
>

I'm doing what I can to keep up on science and the pandemic and what is now
clear is that the guidance about behavior and social distancing changes
rapidly. When the virus first emerged epidemiologists needed to provide
guidance according to how the virus was transmitted, at what stage it was
most infectious, and other factors. The original guidance came from
experience with SARS and MERS which were also coronaviruses. The problem is
that the current coronavirus is different and they have to gather and
interpret the data about it at the same time they have to establish
guidelines. So when something new is learned, like people spread the most
virus out before they show symptoms requires a change in guidance. These
discoveries are coming all the time and the guidance will change rapidly.

In other words anybody making plans about when society is going to reopen
is just guessing wildly.

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