On Jan 8, 2008, at 4:31 PM, Ted Kosan wrote:
>
> Jaap wrote:
>
>>> With bandwidth and memory capacity increasing exponentially, this is
>>> fast becoming a non-issue.
>>>
>>
>> I've heard that before! But I don't believe this is the panacea!
>
> The exponential growth of computing indicates that by 2020, a $1000
> computer will have the same capacity as a human brain. By 2050, a
> $1000 computer will have the same capacity as all the human brains on
> the planet.
You may be confusing capacity with capability :-}
Regardless of the capacity of whatever shows up in the morning, these
things will still be programmed by humans, who are notoriously
clueless about how the brain works. That means that neither the
hardware nor the software will be any more efficient than they
currently are, and in addition, the software is being increasingly
developed by programmers who are relying on that capacity to cover up
for a real lack of talent and understanding.
That last isn't intended as a slight/insult. I mean that more and
more people are getting hauled into the programming profession
without any real understanding of the job. "Java is so simple a
child can use it" is something that (while hyperbole) product
development managers seem to believe. This is one of the reasons
(but certainly not the only) that we don't see an overall increase in
"system performance" to match what we see in our hardware components.
Your comment that "computer capacity is not going to be a problem for
Java" seems indicative of that mind-set.
I don't think Moore's Law figures into this: hardware and software
will continue to progress to meet each other's demands, and when one
slows, the other will too.
Justin
--
Justin C. Walker, Curmudgeon-At-Large
Director
Institute for the Enhancement of the Director's Income
--------
"Weaseling out of things is what separates us from the animals.
Well, except the weasel."
- Homer J Simpson
--------
--~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
To post to this group, send email to sage-devel@googlegroups.com
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/sage-devel
URLs: http://sage.scipy.org/sage/ and http://modular.math.washington.edu/sage/
-~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
