In one of your recent postings, you said that if any crash occur, put attention into what is behind the crash. The following Nasdaq crash seems to be caused by dotcom crash. From your teaching, I conclude that this crash should only nuke dotcom sector (suffer big damage and need time to recover). Mestinya sektor lain cepet pulih. Gitu gak ya? Waktu itu sejarahnya benar gak pak DE, apa sektor lain cepet pulih?
On Jan 6, 2008 4:17 PM, Dean Earwicker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Dotcom crash. > > When: March 11, 2000 to October 9, 2002 > Where: Silicon Valley (for the most part) > > Percentage Lost From Peak to Bottom: The Nasdaq Composite lost -78% of its > value as it fell from 5046.86 to 1114.11 (today 2504, belum balik modal > selama 5 tahun. TMPI lost -92%.. beda tipis yah...) > > http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes9.asp > > Fyi, beberapa bulan kemudian US menginvasi Irak. > http://www.infoplease.com/spot/iraqtimeline2.html > > Kebetulan? Kali ya. Meneketehe. > > > Saya kutip kesimpulannya yah: > > Crashes: Conclusion > > As hindsight is always 20/20, we should take the time to highlight what we > can learn from these past tragedies. > > First off, we should point out that most market volatility is all our > fault. In reality, people create most of the risk in the market place by > inflating stock prices beyond the value of the underlying company. When > stocks are flying through the stratosphere like rockets, it is usually a > sign of a bubble. That's not to say that stocks cannot legitimately enjoy a > huge leap in value, but this leap should be justified by the prospects of > the underlying companies, not just by a mass of investors following each > other. > > The unreasonable belief in the possibility of getting rich quick is the > primary reason people get burned by market crashes. Remember that if you put > your money into investments that have a high potential for returns, you must > also be willing to bear a high chance of losing it all. > > Another observation we should make is that regardless of our measures to > correct the problems, the time between crashes has decreased. We had > centuries between fiascoes, then decades, then years. We cannot say whether > this foretells anything dire for the future, but the best thing you can do > is keep yourself educated, informed, and well-practiced in doing research. > > Regards, > DE > > > > > > On Jan 6, 2008 3:36 PM, jsx_consultant < [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "tbumi" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > sip : tbumi > > > Makin banyak teori yg dipakai org utk menganalisa suatu > > > saham, maka akan makin binggung org tsb utk membeli suatu > > > saham. > > > Ini sdh terbukti para ahli ekonomi tak bisa lebih kaya dari > > > pada pengusaha karena para ahli ekonomi terlampau banyak > > > pakai teori utk menganalisa, sedangkan pengusaha bisa sukses > > > karena berdasarkan pengalaman di lapangan. > > > Demikian juga dgn saham, keuntungan persentase pemain yg > > > selalu sabar pegang beberapa jenis saham yg baik bisa lebih besar > > > > Embah TIDAK menyangkal apa yg dikemukakan pak TBUMI, tapi > > embah mau memberikan FAKTA tentang KEGOBLOKAN market yg > > membangkrutkan INVESTOR SABAR. > > > > Pada thn 2002, Dana pensiun MAYORITAS orang Amerika MENGUAP > > HABIS bukan karena FMnya GREEDY atau FEAR tapi KARENA TERLALU > > SABAR melakukan strategi BUY and HOLD !!! Ketika portfolio > > nya tinggal 20% baru para FM mutual fund Cut Loss dan saat > > itu market rebound LAGI ... TRAGIS tapi FAKTA.... > > > > Jadi INTI INVESTING bukan masalah GREEDY, FEAR atau SABAR tapi > > masalah MARKETWISE !!! > > > > Are you WISE ENOUGH to undestand the PIG (Pasar Itu Goblok)... > > > > > > > dari cara main fundmanager, karena fundmanager terlampau banyak > > > teori yg dipakai dan akhirnya membuat fundmanager tsb khwatir > > > dgn invesment tsb. Akhirnya fundmanager buang barang dan > > > terjadilah crash di market. Dan tentu inilah timing yg tepat > > > bagi pemain biasa harus berani beli barang tsb.
