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Saya pernah baca recent study by Risk Metrics of
89,000 stock reports issued at wall street's largest firm since Sept 98. Isinya
kurang lebih begini
"Study revealed that investors would have done
better by ignoring stock analysts' recommendations and buying those stocks that
were least favored. Stock rated "Hold" or "Sell" outperformed those with "strong
buy" recommendations. In other words, the best strategy was to do the opposite
of what the highly paid stock gurus suggested"
Saya bukan underestimate analyst, tp saya pernah
riset dgn "back track" omongan beberapa analist2 celebrities (ngutip istilah
embah)....hasilnya ternyata sama dgn diatas. Saya juga pernah
construct beberapa dummy portfolios
1) "upgraded by analyst" portfolio.
2) "low P/E, low PBV" portfolios.........bagus if
holding period nya > 1 thn
3) "Macro investing" portfolio which rotate sectors
in economic cycle.
4) "Value" portfolio yg didalamnya harus pass
the 3 stock screens. Riset saya analisa thn 2003-2005
5) "Water schloss" portfolio.
6) "Behavioural finance"
portfolios
Hasilnya ?......portfolio no 1 Always
underperformed porfolio lainnya it even can't beat IHSG
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, December 21, 2005 8:53
AM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa
rekomendasikan SELL ANTM
Kemahalan sih tapi kalau market maker belum
cuci gudang harga terus naek
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, December 20, 2005 8:28
PM
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa
rekomendasikan SELL ANTM
Danareksa merekomendasikan sell ANTM dengan analisa
sbb:
Mungkin Pak Eka bisa kasih second opinion?
Overvalued,
downgrade to SELL
We downgrade our recommendation to SELL with a FY06-end
target price of
Rp2,700
because the share price has run ahead
of fundamentals in our opinion. High
ferronickel cash costs remain our
main concern given the still high
expectations on
oil prices
next year and the lack of detailed plans available on the fuel
switching
program. The higher gold price is positive for ANTM but the
impact on the
bottom
line is not significant in our estimate as
gold revenues constitute only
15-20% of total
revenues.
Cash
costs assumption to increase by 8% next year
We have revised up our FY06
oil prices (High Speed Diesel and Marine Fuel
Oil) assumptions
in
FY06 by 41% and 20% because of Pertamina’s higher-than-expected
industrial
selling prices. This
has led to us increasing our
FY06 cash costs assumption from US$3.2/lb to
US$3.5/lb. Our
new
forecasts are in line with the management’s expectations of
US$3.5-3.7/lb
cash costs in FY06.
Upgrading gold price
assumptions
The gold price has risen substantially in the last couple of
weeks driven
mainly by strong US
economic growth. The current
gold price of some US$500/t.oz has already
exceeded the
18-year
highest price. We have revised up our FY06-07 gold prices
assumptions by
17% and 19%,
respectively.
All lead to
changes in forecasts
We have upgraded our FY06-07 earnings forecasts by
12% and 43%
respectively mainly driven by
changes in
assumptions on gold prices, ferronickel cash costs, and foreign
exchange rates. On the
operational front, our FY06-07 earnings
estimates were revised up by 18%
and 45% respectively.
Why do
we rate the stock as a SELL?
The share price has already risen in the
last couple of weeks mainly
triggered in our view
by
expectations of a rising gold price. Although a rising gold price
is
positive for ANTM, we don’t think
that it will have a
significant impact on valuations because of ANTM’s
relatively
small portion of
gold revenues, only some 15-20% to total
revenues.
Year to Dec 2002 2003 2005F 2006F 2007F
Revenue, Rp bn
2,139 2,859 3,296 4,971 4,237
EBITDA, Rp bn 588 1,255 1,563 2,126
1,407
EBITDA growth, % 34.8 113.4 24.6 36.0 (33.8)
Net profit, Rp bn
227 807 919 1,110 570
Core profit, Rp bn 357 749 884 1,155 653
EPS, Rp
119 423 482 582 299
EPS growth, % 12.1 256.3 13.9 20.8 (48.7)
Core
EPS, Rp 187 393 464 605 342
Core EPS growth, % 121.5 110.0 18.1 30.6
(43.4)
BVPS, Rp 935 1,299 1,629 2,042 2,137
DPS, Rp 166 151 152 204
105
Net gearing, % (11.4) 3.0 20.1 (17.7) (27.7)
PER, x 28.6 8.0 7.1
5.8 11.4
Core PER, x 18.2 8.7 7.3 5.6 9.9
PBV, x 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7
1.6
Yield, % 4.9 4.4 4.5 6.0 3.1
EV/EBITDA, x 10.7 5.2 4.5 2.7
3.8
ANTM in our opinion still carries some risks though:
a.
Possible higher-than-expected cash costs due to higher oil prices –
Fuel costs represent
a significant portion of ferronickel cash costs,
some 37% this year and
47% next year.
Without any fuel
switching program, higher oil prices can boost cash costs
further
and
squeeze margins.
b. Balance sheet under pressure – ANTM’s balance
sheet is healthy in our
view, and we
expect that it will change
to net cash next year. But with the
management’s plans
to
expand into major projects, such as HPAL and, recently, coal, the
balance
sheet will come
under pressure when ANTM has to raise
loans to finance the projects.
c. Illegal mining and the expected short
life of Pongkor mine – We are
concerned that
higher gold prices
will induce illegal activities in the Pongkor gold
mine.
Another
concern is that the mine life of Pongkor is only 10 years.
The
fact that ANTM will triple ferronickel production next year, which
therefore will lead to
EPS growth of 20% in our estimate, has already
been priced in by the
market in our view.
FY06 valuations,
though looking quite interesting, we believe are mainly
driven by
the
higher ferronickel production rather than expectations of a better
nickel
price. Under our
estimated sustainable EPS, at the
current price ANTM generates an earnings
yield of only
7%,
below its WACC of 13.7%. We place a SELL recommendation on the stock
with FY06-end
target price of Rp2,700. The consensus view that there
won’t be additional
nickel supply is
a positive factor for
ANTM.
Tks
HJ
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