Re: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM

Tue, 20 Dec 2005 18:46:50 -0800

Masih murah, utk target 2005 harga sudah wajar tapi utk target FYE 2006 masih murah. EPS FYE2006=750-800, jadi PER2006 dgn harga 3400, PER2006=4,533. Masih ada ruang utk naik. Apalagi saya lihat , laba bersih utk desember 2005 masih di atas 800 milliar ada naik sedikit, bertolak belakang dgn apa yg dikatakan OD, saya masih setuju apa yg di released ML.
 
Cuma harus di catat , hari ini nickel turun ke 5,9 USD/lb, kalo tembus di bawah 5 USD lebih baik lepas. Cost BBM antm masih lebih tinggi daripada INCO yg pakai PLTA. Saya masih pegang di harga buyback 3200-3300.
 


Karno Edy <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

Kemahalan sih tapi kalau market maker belum cuci gudang harga terus naek
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, December 20, 2005 8:28 PM
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM

Danareksa merekomendasikan sell ANTM dengan analisa sbb:
Mungkin Pak Eka bisa kasih second opinion?

Overvalued, downgrade to SELL
We downgrade our recommendation to SELL with a FY06-end target price of 
Rp2,700
because the share price has run ahead of fundamentals in our opinion. High
ferronickel cash costs remain our main concern given the still high 
expectations on
oil prices next year and the lack of detailed plans available on the fuel 
switching
program. The higher gold price is positive for ANTM but the impact on the 
bottom
line is not significant in our estimate as gold revenues constitute only 
15-20% of total
revenues.
Cash costs assumption to increase by 8% next year
We have revised up our FY06 oil prices (High Speed Diesel and Marine Fuel 
Oil) assumptions in
FY06 by 41% and 20% because of Pertamina’s higher-than-expected industrial 
selling prices. This
has led to us increasing our FY06 cash costs assumption from US$3.2/lb to 
US$3.5/lb. Our new
forecasts are in line with the management’s expectations of US$3.5-3.7/lb 
cash costs in FY06.
Upgrading gold price assumptions
The gold price has risen substantially in the last couple of weeks driven 
mainly by strong US
economic growth. The current gold price of some US$500/t.oz has already 
exceeded the 18-year
highest price. We have revised up our FY06-07 gold prices assumptions by 
17% and 19%,
respectively.
All lead to changes in forecasts
We have upgraded our FY06-07 earnings forecasts by 12% and 43% 
respectively mainly driven by
changes in assumptions on gold prices, ferronickel cash costs, and foreign 
exchange rates. On the
operational front, our FY06-07 earnings estimates were revised up by 18% 
and 45% respectively.
Why do we rate the stock as a SELL?
The share price has already risen in the last couple of weeks mainly 
triggered in our view by
expectations of a rising gold price. Although a rising gold price is 
positive for ANTM, we don’t think
that it will have a significant impact on valuations because of ANTM’s 
relatively small portion of
gold revenues, only some 15-20% to total revenues.

Year to Dec 2002 2003 2005F 2006F 2007F
Revenue, Rp bn 2,139 2,859 3,296 4,971 4,237
EBITDA, Rp bn 588 1,255 1,563 2,126 1,407
EBITDA growth, % 34.8 113.4 24.6 36.0 (33.8)
Net profit, Rp bn 227 807 919 1,110 570
Core profit, Rp bn 357 749 884 1,155 653
EPS, Rp 119 423 482 582 299
EPS growth, % 12.1 256.3 13.9 20.8 (48.7)
Core EPS, Rp 187 393 464 605 342
Core EPS growth, % 121.5 110.0 18.1 30.6 (43.4)
BVPS, Rp 935 1,299 1,629 2,042 2,137
DPS, Rp 166 151 152 204 105
Net gearing, % (11.4) 3.0 20.1 (17.7) (27.7)
PER, x 28.6 8.0 7.1 5.8 11.4
Core PER, x 18.2 8.7 7.3 5.6 9.9
PBV, x 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6
Yield, % 4.9 4.4 4.5 6.0 3.1
EV/EBITDA, x 10.7 5.2 4.5 2.7 3.8

ANTM in our opinion still carries some risks though:
a. Possible higher-than-expected cash costs due to higher oil prices – 
Fuel costs represent
a significant portion of ferronickel cash costs, some 37% this year and 
47% next year.
Without any fuel switching program, higher oil prices can boost cash costs 
further and
squeeze margins.
b. Balance sheet under pressure – ANTM’s balance sheet is healthy in our 
view, and we
expect that it will change to net cash next year. But with the 
management’s plans to
expand into major projects, such as HPAL and, recently, coal, the balance 
sheet will come
under pressure when ANTM has to raise loans to finance the projects.
c. Illegal mining and the expected short life of Pongkor mine – We are 
concerned that
higher gold prices will induce illegal activities in the Pongkor gold 
mine. Another
concern is that the mine life of Pongkor is only 10 years.
The fact that ANTM will triple ferronickel production next year, which 
therefore will lead to
EPS growth of 20% in our estimate, has already been priced in by the 
market in our view.
FY06 valuations, though looking quite interesting, we believe are mainly 
driven by the
higher ferronickel production rather than expectations of a better nickel 
price. Under our
estimated sustainable EPS, at the current price ANTM generates an earnings 
yield of only
7%, below its WACC of 13.7%. We place a SELL recommendation on the stock 
with FY06-end
target price of Rp2,700. The consensus view that there won’t be additional 
nickel supply is
a positive factor for ANTM.


Tks
HJ

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