Setahu saya utk gold, scr sederhana level D (wave 5) masih belon terbentuk & akan terjadi - dg angka yg jauh lebih tinggi dr level tertinggi yg pernah tercapai baru2 ini, yaitu setelah 'pullback' dalam jangka waktu yg relatif sama (i.e.target dimaksud 1 (satu) tahun ke depan) ...
> Masih murah, utk target 2005 harga sudah wajar tapi utk target FYE 2006 > masih murah. EPS FYE2006=750-800, jadi PER2006 dgn harga 3400, > PER2006=4,533. Masih ada ruang utk naik. Apalagi saya lihat , laba bersih > utk desember 2005 masih di atas 800 milliar ada naik sedikit, bertolak > belakang dgn apa yg dikatakan OD, saya masih setuju apa yg di released ML. > > Cuma harus di catat , hari ini nickel turun ke 5,9 USD/lb, kalo tembus > di bawah 5 USD lebih baik lepas. Cost BBM antm masih lebih tinggi > daripada INCO yg pakai PLTA. Saya masih pegang di harga buyback > 3200-3300. > > > > Karno Edy <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >  Kemahalan sih tapi kalau market maker belum cuci gudang > harga terus naek > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Hendra Julius > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Sent: Tuesday, December 20, 2005 8:28 PM > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM > > > Danareksa merekomendasikan sell ANTM dengan analisa sbb: > Mungkin Pak Eka bisa kasih second opinion? > > Overvalued, downgrade to SELL > We downgrade our recommendation to SELL with a FY06-end target price of > Rp2,700 > because the share price has run ahead of fundamentals in our opinion. High > ferronickel cash costs remain our main concern given the still high > expectations on > oil prices next year and the lack of detailed plans available on the fuel > switching > program. The higher gold price is positive for ANTM but the impact on the > bottom > line is not significant in our estimate as gold revenues constitute only > 15-20% of total > revenues. > Cash costs assumption to increase by 8% next year > We have revised up our FY06 oil prices (High Speed Diesel and Marine Fuel > Oil) assumptions in > FY06 by 41% and 20% because of Pertaminaâs higher-than-expected > industrial > selling prices. This > has led to us increasing our FY06 cash costs assumption from US$3.2/lb to > US$3.5/lb. Our new > forecasts are in line with the managementâs expectations of > US$3.5-3.7/lb > cash costs in FY06. > Upgrading gold price assumptions > The gold price has risen substantially in the last couple of weeks driven > mainly by strong US > economic growth. The current gold price of some US$500/t.oz has already > exceeded the 18-year > highest price. We have revised up our FY06-07 gold prices assumptions by > 17% and 19%, > respectively. > All lead to changes in forecasts > We have upgraded our FY06-07 earnings forecasts by 12% and 43% > respectively mainly driven by > changes in assumptions on gold prices, ferronickel cash costs, and foreign > exchange rates. On the > operational front, our FY06-07 earnings estimates were revised up by 18% > and 45% respectively. > Why do we rate the stock as a SELL? > The share price has already risen in the last couple of weeks mainly > triggered in our view by > expectations of a rising gold price. Although a rising gold price is > positive for ANTM, we donât think > that it will have a significant impact on valuations because of ANTMâs > relatively small portion of > gold revenues, only some 15-20% to total revenues. > > Year to Dec 2002 2003 2005F 2006F 2007F > Revenue, Rp bn 2,139 2,859 3,296 4,971 4,237 > EBITDA, Rp bn 588 1,255 1,563 2,126 1,407 > EBITDA growth, % 34.8 113.4 24.6 36.0 (33.8) > Net profit, Rp bn 227 807 919 1,110 570 > Core profit, Rp bn 357 749 884 1,155 653 > EPS, Rp 119 423 482 582 299 > EPS growth, % 12.1 256.3 13.9 20.8 (48.7) > Core EPS, Rp 187 393 464 605 342 > Core EPS growth, % 121.5 110.0 18.1 30.6 (43.4) > BVPS, Rp 935 1,299 1,629 2,042 2,137 > DPS, Rp 166 151 152 204 105 > Net gearing, % (11.4) 3.0 20.1 (17.7) (27.7) > PER, x 28.6 8.0 7.1 5.8 11.4 > Core PER, x 18.2 8.7 7.3 5.6 9.9 > PBV, x 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6 > Yield, % 4.9 4.4 4.5 6.0 3.1 > EV/EBITDA, x 10.7 5.2 4.5 2.7 3.8 > > ANTM in our opinion still carries some risks though: > a. Possible higher-than-expected cash costs due to higher oil prices â > Fuel costs represent > a significant portion of ferronickel cash costs, some 37% this year and > 47% next year. > Without any fuel switching program, higher oil prices can boost cash costs > further and > squeeze margins. > b. Balance sheet under pressure â ANTMâs balance sheet is healthy in > our > view, and we > expect that it will change to net cash next year. But with the > managementâs plans to > expand into major projects, such as HPAL and, recently, coal, the balance > sheet will come > under pressure when ANTM has to raise loans to finance the projects. > c. Illegal mining and the expected short life of Pongkor mine â We are > concerned that > higher gold prices will induce illegal activities in the Pongkor gold > mine. Another > concern is that the mine life of Pongkor is only 10 years. > The fact that ANTM will triple ferronickel production next year, which > therefore will lead to > EPS growth of 20% in our estimate, has already been priced in by the > market in our view. > FY06 valuations, though looking quite interesting, we believe are mainly > driven by the > higher ferronickel production rather than expectations of a better nickel > price. Under our > estimated sustainable EPS, at the current price ANTM generates an earnings > yield of only > 7%, below its WACC of 13.7%. We place a SELL recommendation on the stock > with FY06-end > target price of Rp2,700. The consensus view that there wonât be > additional > nickel supply is > a positive factor for ANTM. > > > Tks > HJ > > -- > Using Opera's revolutionary e-mail client: http://www.opera.com/m2/ > > > > > > SPONSORED LINKS > Business finance course Business to business finance Small > business finance Business finance consultant Business > finance magazine Business finance schools > > --------------------------------- > YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS > > > Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. > > > --------------------------------- > > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! 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