Utk Gold masih bisa RALLY ke atas 600USD, Gold pernah sampai 800USD tahun 1981. Di buku "Stock on the long run" dikatakan GOLD akan naik seiring harga minyak. Tapi akan turun tajam apabila ekonomi (dicerminkan index DJIA) membaik.
Itu sebabnya dgn SBI dan The FED dan juga minyak naik terus, saya hanya pegang sektor pertambangan, kalo ada tanda2 SBI turun baru saya pegang perbankan.
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Itu sebabnya dgn SBI dan The FED dan juga minyak naik terus, saya hanya pegang sektor pertambangan, kalo ada tanda2 SBI turun baru saya pegang perbankan.
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Setahu saya utk gold, scr sederhana level D (wave 5) masih belon terbentuk
& akan terjadi - dg angka yg jauh lebih tinggi dr level tertinggi yg
pernah tercapai baru2 ini, yaitu setelah 'pullback' dalam jangka waktu yg
relatif sama (i.e.target dimaksud 1 (satu) tahun ke depan) ...
> Masih murah, utk target 2005 harga sudah wajar tapi utk target FYE 2006
> masih murah. EPS FYE2006=750-800, jadi PER2006 dgn harga 3400,
> PER2006=4,533. Masih ada ruang utk naik. Apalagi saya lihat , laba bersih
> utk desember 2005 masih di atas 800 milliar ada naik sedikit, bertolak
> belakang dgn apa yg dikatakan OD, saya masih setuju apa yg di released ML.
>
> Cuma harus di catat , hari ini nickel turun ke 5,9 USD/lb, kalo tembus
> di bawah 5 USD lebih baik lepas. Cost BBM antm masih lebih tinggi
> daripada INCO yg pakai PLTA. Saya masih pegang di harga buyback
> 3200-3300.
>
>
>
> Karno Edy <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>  Kemahalan sih tapi kalau market maker belum cuci gudang
> harga terus naek
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Hendra Julius
> To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Tuesday, December 20, 2005 8:28 PM
> Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM
>
>
> Danareksa merekomendasikan sell ANTM dengan analisa sbb:
> Mungkin Pak Eka bisa kasih second opinion?
>
> Overvalued, downgrade to SELL
> We downgrade our recommendation to SELL with a FY06-end target price of
> Rp2,700
> because the share price has run ahead of fundamentals in our opinion. High
> ferronickel cash costs remain our main concern given the still high
> expectations on
> oil prices next year and the lack of detailed plans available on the fuel
> switching
> program. The higher gold price is positive for ANTM but the impact on the
> bottom
> line is not significant in our estimate as gold revenues constitute only
> 15-20% of total
> revenues.
> Cash costs assumption to increase by 8% next year
> We have revised up our FY06 oil prices (High Speed Diesel and Marine Fuel
> Oil) assumptions in
> FY06 by 41% and 20% because of Pertaminaâs higher-than-expected
> industrial
> selling prices. This
> has led to us increasing our FY06 cash costs assumption from US$3.2/lb to
> US$3.5/lb. Our new
> forecasts are in line with the managementâs expectations of
> US$3.5-3.7/lb
> cash costs in FY06.
> Upgrading gold price assumptions
> The gold price has risen substantially in the last couple of weeks driven
> mainly by strong US
> economic growth. The current gold price of some US$500/t.oz has already
> exceeded the 18-year
> highest price. We have revised up our FY06-07 gold prices assumptions by
> 17% and 19%,
> respectively.
> All lead to changes in forecasts
> We have upgraded our FY06-07 earnings forecasts by 12% and 43%
> respectively mainly driven by
> changes in assumptions on gold prices, ferronickel cash costs, and foreign
> exchange rates. On the
> operational front, our FY06-07 earnings estimates were revised up by 18%
> and 45% respectively.
> Why do we rate the stock as a SELL?
> The share price has already risen in the last couple of weeks mainly
> triggered in our view by
> expectations of a rising gold price. Although a rising gold price is
> positive for ANTM, we donât think
> that it will have a significant impact on valuations because of ANTMâs
> relatively small portion of
> gold revenues, only some 15-20% to total revenues.
>
> Year to Dec 2002 2003 2005F 2006F 2007F
> Revenue, Rp bn 2,139 2,859 3,296 4,971 4,237
> EBITDA, Rp bn 588 1,255 1,563 2,126 1,407
> EBITDA growth, % 34.8 113.4 24.6 36.0 (33.8)
> Net profit, Rp bn 227 807 919 1,110 570
> Core profit, Rp bn 357 749 884 1,155 653
> EPS, Rp 119 423 482 582 299
> EPS growth, % 12.1 256.3 13.9 20.8 (48.7)
> Core EPS, Rp 187 393 464 605 342
> Core EPS growth, % 121.5 110.0 18.1 30.6 (43.4)
> BVPS, Rp 935 1,299 1,629 2,042 2,137
> DPS, Rp 166 151 152 204 105
> Net gearing, % (11.4) 3.0 20.1 (17.7) (27.7)
> PER, x 28.6 8.0 7.1 5.8 11.4
> Core PER, x 18.2 8.7 7.3 5.6 9.9
> PBV, x 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6
> Yield, % 4.9 4.4 4.5 6.0 3.1
> EV/EBITDA, x 10.7 5.2 4.5 2.7 3.8
>
> ANTM in our opinion still carries some risks though:
> a. Possible higher-than-expected cash costs due to higher oil prices â
> Fuel costs represent
> a significant portion of ferronickel cash costs, some 37% this year and
> 47% next year.
> Without any fuel switching program, higher oil prices can boost cash costs
> further and
> squeeze margins.
> b. Balance sheet under pressure â ANTMâs balance sheet is healthy in
> our
> view, and we
> expect that it will change to net cash next year. But with the
> managementâs plans to
> expand into major projects, such as HPAL and, recently, coal, the balance
> sheet will come
> under pressure when ANTM has to raise loans to finance the projects.
> c. Illegal mining and the expected short life of Pongkor mine â We are
> concerned that
> higher gold prices will induce illegal activities in the Pongkor gold
> mine. Another
> concern is that the mine life of Pongkor is only 10 years.
> The fact that ANTM will triple ferronickel production next year, which
> therefore will lead to
> EPS growth of 20% in our estimate, has already been priced in by the
> market in our view.
> FY06 valuations, though looking quite interesting, we believe are mainly
> driven by the
> higher ferronickel production rather than expectations of a better nickel
> price. Under our
> estimated sustainable EPS, at the current price ANTM generates an earnings
> yield of only
> 7%, below its WACC of 13.7%. We place a SELL recommendation on the stock
> with FY06-end
> target price of Rp2,700. The consensus view that there wonât be
> additional
> nickel supply is
> a positive factor for ANTM.
>
>
> Tks
> HJ
>
> --
> Using Opera's revolutionary e-mail client: http://www.opera.com/m2/
>
>
>
>
>
> SPONSORED LINKS
> Business finance course Business to business finance Small
> business finance Business finance consultant Business
> finance magazine Business finance schools
>
> ---------------------------------
> YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS
>
>
> Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web.
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
>
>
> ---------------------------------
>
>
>
>
SPONSORED LINKS
| Business finance course | Business to business finance | Small business finance |
| Business finance consultant | Business finance magazine | Business finance schools |
YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS
- Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web.
- To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
- Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
