The exercise your colleague conducted with her students really highlights some fascinating insights into contemporary perceptions of the future. It's clear that today's college students, like many others, are significantly influenced by their peers and the media narratives they consume. The prevailing mainstream narrative often paints a picture of gloom and pessimism regarding humanity's trajectory. Thus, it's not surprising that none of the students chose to visit the future, signaling perhaps a deep-seated skepticism or anxiety about what lies ahead.
I share an optimistic view about humanity's future, but I must admit, my confidence in this optimism is quite low. Similarly, I find myself with little confidence in the doomsday scenarios often depicted. This ambivalence is influenced by David Deutsch's perspective that "everything we know is probably wrong." Deutsch suggests that the best "knowledge" we can have is derived from applying robust explanations to our current understanding. Both Richard Heinberg's pessimistic outlook and Steven Pinker's optimistic one could be considered "good explanations" under Deutsch’s criteria, yet I wouldn't place high confidence in either due to the chaotic and unpredictable nature of human systems. This brings me to personal reflection on the matter. Can we truly know if the future will be beneficial or bleak? My belief is that while we can make educated guesses, the future could swing in any direction due to countless unknown variables. This leads to a critical question for myself: What can I do to influence the future positively for both myself and humanity? The answers aren't straightforward; they involve many actions, one of which is fostering a personal optimism. This optimism not only fuels my actions but also contributes to my happiness. Considering the students' reluctance to venture into the future, we might interpret this as a reflection of cultural anxiety or a sign that the optimism associated with figures like Pinker might be waning. However, it's essential to be cautious about oversimplifying this response. It could be a mix of genuine concern based on current global challenges and an amplification of fears by sensationalized media. In terms of causality, as you've pointed out, we often struggle to identify which factors are truly significant. The phenomenon we observe in students could be a long-lived transient, akin to economic cycles, where what seems like "the new normal" might just be a phase in a larger cycle. This reminds us to cast our nets wide when considering future possibilities and not to be misled by what might be transient trends. So, where does this leave us? It's crucial to keep questioning, learning, and acting with an informed optimism. By doing so, we not only prepare for various future scenarios but also actively work towards shaping a future that reflects our hopes rather than our fears. On Mon, 20 Jan 2025 at 12:13, Santafe <desm...@santafe.edu> wrote: > I was at a meeting a couple of months ago, and a colleague I know, whom I > have often found thoughtful and interesting, related an exercise she did > with one or more classes of her students. > > She tells them: You have a time machine, and you can go to any time and > place. Where will you go? > > And she says many of them want the 80s, maybe some a little earlier; she > didn’t relate much about where. Me being me (having no big picture, so > every joke comes as a delightful surprise), I was thinking “the 80s!? Kids > have no imagination and no taste.” > > Then she gave what was the point of the exercise. Not one of the students > wanted to go to any point in the future, anywhere. > > Quite striking, when one thinks about the zeitgeist in the 60s or even > recently (90s or early 00s). > > > A difficulty in all this, which makes it good to think about, is our > doubtful performance identifying relevant context for any causal claim. We > aren’t going to handle the great holy Om of All Things at All Detail (maybe > one of us will, but not most of the others). So it must be okay to say > that, causally, some things are beside the point and others are central to > it. > > The hazard of anybody making economic forecasts is that transients can > last long enough that the analyst think they are “the new normal”. We see > it in economics with every business cycle, and those aren’t even as long as > forest-fire cycles. Industrialization is a good bit longer and wider than > that. Failing to realize that something is a long-lived transient is a > case of casting the causal net too narrowly. > > We have all kinds of antennae to try to do this, somewhat independent, and > all fallible. > > The kids’ cultural anxiety can be a good sensor that the transient that > has Pinker’s attention is running out. It can also be oversimplified worry > reflecting oversimplified news. Both can be true at once. > > Eric > > > On Jan 19, 2025, at 11:26 PM, Pieter Steenekamp < > piet...@randcontrols.co.za> wrote: > > > > > > I asked Grok "please give me an overview of Steven Pinker's optimistic > view of the future" > > > > Steven Pinker is a cognitive psychologist and linguist who has become > well-known for his optimistic view on the future, particularly through his > books like "The Better Angels of Our Nature" and "Enlightenment Now." > Here's an overview of his perspective: > > > > Core Arguments: > > Decline in Violence: > > Pinker argues that, historically, violence has been on a significant > downward trend. He points to various metrics like homicide rates, deaths > from wars, and even the treatment of animals to show that humanity has > become less violent over time. > > Human Progress: > > He emphasizes improvements in health, life expectancy, education, human > rights, and economic prosperity. For instance, life expectancy has doubled > over the last century, extreme poverty has plummeted, and literacy rates > have soared. > > The Enlightenment Values: > > Pinker attributes much of this progress to the spread of Enlightenment > values such as reason, science, humanism, and progress itself. He believes > these values have driven societal improvements by promoting skepticism, > evidence-based reasoning, and a commitment to human welfare. > > Countering Pessimism: > > Pinker often critiques what he sees as an undue pessimism in modern > society, fueled by media bias towards negative news, which skews > perceptions of the world. He uses statistical data to argue that, contrary > to popular belief, many aspects of life are getting better. > > Rational Optimism: > > His optimism isn't blind; it's grounded in data and historical trends. > Pinker acknowledges setbacks and challenges but argues that the overall > trajectory points towards improvement. He advocates for a "rational > optimism" where one acknowledges problems but also the capacity to solve > them. > > > > Key Points from His Works: > > In "The Better Angels of Our Nature," he discusses how human nature > includes both violent and peaceful tendencies, with the latter increasingly > dominant due to social, cultural, and economic changes. > > In "Enlightenment Now," Pinker elaborates on how Enlightenment thinking > has led to tangible improvements in various aspects of life, from health to > peace, and why these trends can continue if we uphold Enlightenment values. > > > > Critiques and Challenges: > > Some critics argue Pinker overlooks or downplays ongoing global issues > like climate change, economic inequality, or the potential for > technological misuse, which could undo or complicate the progress he > highlights. > > Others challenge his methodology, pointing out that statistics can be > misleading or that his selection of data might be biased towards positive > trends. > > > > Conclusion: > > Pinker's view is that by understanding our history through the lens of > data, we can appreciate the progress made and be motivated to continue this > trajectory. He encourages a proactive approach to problem-solving based on > science, reason, and humanistic values. Despite criticisms, his work has > sparked significant debate about how we perceive our past, present, and > future, promoting a more hopeful, albeit cautious, outlook on what lies > ahead. > > > > On Mon, 20 Jan 2025 at 00:20, Jochen Fromm <j...@cas-group.net> wrote: > > Richard Heinberg can formulate it probably better than I. He has defined > in his book "Peak Everything" ( > https://newsociety.com/book/peak-everything/ ) the following 5 axioms of > sustainability: > > > > 1. (Tainter’s Axiom): Any society that continues to use critical > resources unsustainably will collapse > > 2. (Bartlett’s Axiom): Population growth and/or growth in the rates of > consumption of resources cannot be sustained. > > 3. To be sustainable, the use of renewable resources must proceed at a > rate that is less than or equal to the rate of natural replenishment. > > 4. To be sustainable, the use of NON-renewable resources must proceed at > a rate that is declining, and the rate of decline must be greater than or > equal to the rate of depletion. > > 5. Sustainability requires that substances introduced into the > environment from human activities be minimized and rendered harmless to > biosphere functions > > > > https://richardheinberg.com/178-five-axioms-of-sustainability > > > > -J. > > > > > > -------- Original message -------- > > From: steve smith <sasm...@swcp.com> > > Date: 1/19/25 6:48 PM (GMT+01:00) > > To: friam@redfish.com > > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fredkin/Toffoli, Reversibility and Adiabatic > Computing. > > > > Jochen wrote: > > > >> > >> Natural ecosystems do not consume more than they give back. Every > biological organism that dies is recycled and used to build new organisms. > If we want to integrate our society in this only natural habitat which we > have then fossil fuels must be replaced by renewable energy, carbon dioxide > emissions and plastic waste production must be stopped, deforestation must > end, agriculture must be sustainable, resources must be recycled. Paul > Hawken mentions these steps in his book "Regeneration: Ending the Climate > Crisis in One Generation" > >> > https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/446598/regeneration-by-hawken-paul/9780141998916 > > it just so happens that I'm listening to a Nate Hagens podcast on the > topic of bioregionalism which ties (very abstractly) these points you are > making here with my experiments with Hashlife. The connection (if not too > stretched) is that the adaptation of a bioregion to human presence is > stigmergic and in the sense of hashlife is vaguely correlated with the idea > of building/maintaining a highly relevant/adaptive suite of patterns in the > environment suitable for the evolution of one particular subsystem (human > individuals, groups). One of the participants in the panel is an > archaelogist who studies Neanderthal sites extensively who claimed there > was a site she studied extensively which was used as a large-mammal > butchery for roughly 200k years across various climactic shifts... did > this represent acute suitability or a stigmergic change in the locale which > resulted from the earliest uses of the locale? > > > > The idea that "natural ecosystems do not consume more than they give > back" is an example, however, of my maunderings on the "TANNSTAFFL" > paradox. Circular/toroidal economies do seem to be less wasteful (in some > sense) but Life exists situated in gradients and while it's signature trick > is to export entropy from it's immediate context, it *exports* it, not > *avoids* it? It seems as if this is all about defining "systems > boundaries" which of course may be a contradiction in terms (or a > tautology?). > > > > I don't know if this is a gibberishy as EricS' recent rant about how bad > science writing is bringing civilization to an early end or not... but I do > think it rhymes? > > > >> > >> But it is more than just a climate crisis, it is "Civilization's > Crisis: A Set Of Linked Challenges" as the book from John Scales Avery > says. We have the interconnected challenges of climate crisis, refugee > crisis, energy scarcity, population growth, resource depletion, poverty and > economic inequality, pollution and environmental degradation, and finally > the problem of war and nuclear weapons. Solving all these interconnected > crises in our capitalistic economic system seems to be impossible. John > says we need to achieve a steady state economic system. > >> > https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/10501?srsltid=AfmBOopEymNyWKHnCaxz--HVIq0KJOayH5IYnOGfzHnri2zz6jeBMsEp > >> > >> -J. > >> > >> > >> -------- Original message -------- > >> From: Santafe <desm...@santafe.edu> > >> Date: 1/19/25 12:04 PM (GMT+01:00) > >> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fredkin/Toffoli, Reversibility and Adiabatic > Computing. > >> > >> I think Jochen is right, that civilization will collapse. And the > reason is that people keep writing articles like this one (a couple of > clicks deep from Steve’s TechCrunch link) > >> > <com_samsung_android_email_attachmentprovider_1_3548_RAW_1737291099023.png> > >> 🔮 Breaking the energy barrier with reversible > computing > >> exponentialview.co > >> about entropy. > >> > >> Like Charles de Gaulle’s (apocryphal?) “How can you govern a country > which has 246 varieties of cheese?”, how can a society continue that is > committed to making entropy into voodoo? > >> > >> Here are some old war-horses, never put out to pasture where they > belong: > >> > >> The law that this potential reduction in energy all depends on is the > second law of thermodynamics, which states that entropy (unusable energy or > disorder) increases over time. As a result, everything ultimately runs down > and releases waste heat. > >> > >> > >> (my complaint is the parenthesis: entropy is not energy, usable or > otherwise). And later > >> > >> Landauer created a formula for the energy in joules released per binary > bit deleted. If we express his original equation in natural units of energy > and information, the equation is astoundingly simple: > >> > >> Energy (in natural units) = Information (in nats)1 > >> > >> Now, this doesn’t prove that energy and information are equivalent in > the same way that Einstein proved that mass and energy were equivalent, but > it is a tantalising possibility. > >> > >> > >> It’s not a tantalizing possibility. It’s a meaningless > nonsense-locution that you say to people if you don’t think they could > understand a correct description and don’t really care anyway. > >> > >> The above are related to the writer (of the TechCrunch link?) saying > that > >> > >> Effectively, energy is retained inside the chip instead of being > released as heat. > >> > >> No. There could be energy on the chip, but that’s not what the > relation is about. > >> > >> What is retained in the chip is specificity among choices. Whether or > not there is any energy difference in one choice versus another has nothing > to do with anything’s being “retained inside the chip”. > >> > >> The reason Landauer’s relation (in any of its variants) holds is that, > to recycle chip-state, you have to have a way to rotate the state-entropy > out into a thermal bath. More specifically, there has to be a way to > rotate any state from the chip into some corresponding state in the bath > such that the chip is returned to a default state to receive the next > inputs. Because the signal state that you are rotating out could be any > allowed one, the bath-state that you need to rotate it into needs likewise > to be one from an ensemble. It is to make the _bath states_ populatable > that you need to supply entropy-less energy (aka work), which the bath then > moves into no-longer-controlled degrees of freedom (aka heat). > >> > >> > >> I’m not actually up on a high horse, and write as if I were mostly to > make myself absurd. I really don’t care one way or another. But there is > a thing in here about being real to people that seems important to me as a > theoretician, as it has to do with envisioning a different world. > Increasingly I have some time with Sci-Com people, and they are remarkably > un-bothered by the thing that, to me, seems like the core of all later > choices: > >> > >> What if, when we talked to people, we either tried to give our best > ability to be understood, or like Quakers, we just stayed quiet. The > motive being that, if we aren’t giving them something we intend them to > understand, then we must be doing something else. Hoping we make ourselves > look smart? Fashionable? That feels icky (dishonorable) to me, in the > attitude one person evidently has about others. They are there to fuel > vanity; not as peers who deserve knowledge if your guild is the knowledge > workers. > >> > >> Sure, we all mess up. But our society now is structured around > relations where I think people really don’t care, and this casual clowning > is taken to be the default, and all fine. It makes me uncomfortable. > >> > >> Eric > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >>> On Jan 18, 2025, at 19:03, steve smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: > >>> > >>> Pieter - > >>> > >>> Good find. It lead me to Vaire and then to the Sandia/ABQ work of > Michael Frank who left to join/found Vaire this summer? It is possible > that my renewed interest in reversible computing might have been triggered > subliminally by some reference to both/either? > >>> > >>> > https://techcrunch.com/2024/07/01/vaire-computing-raises-4-5m-for-reversible-computing-moonshot-which-could-drastically-reduce-energy-needs/ > >>> > >>> https://vaire.co/ > >>> > >>> I thought I'd been triggered by the combination of the demands of AI > and on data centers (my daughter closed her gym of 10 years to take a job > in a data center development startup a year ago... ). > >>> > >>> My inability to attribute such things, parallels that of LLMs (or more > generally transformer models)? > >>> > >>> - Steve > >>> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. > --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > >>> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,CdxDQvGK-EwZVy4Dh62Vr88_4rI_EeQWk8wvgy62aA8L0A7FBsriIuHGBqMsVGQyV0IBNnoqtdsLYieD2wpFmUMkKpYo8DdJq6AWby4566tlvg,,&typo=1 > >>> to (un)subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,dxFGOafzQM2h2pCg07W8FhQOr3T7S6BUm7gwtCPkDguTqF6XDUnZ5a0u4UYzFZljhUAEbDA2ZVBxmTD75y6e20lVL-FmtU0vI8XhxmecpHB-YXZT&typo=1 > >>> FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,9J5kJ4jNpb5WTH8P4MqcAUphyz2P5njBVf96n2ZrV3snQ_mMwks3ITyxVH9M644mn8f-TDW6ogLbbOkSK6tcbqti4wt7x7g14BYzAyNXveyXWZfJkNT1uta375j8&typo=1 > >>> archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,8-rTJlMb4CPIKKvzolJDIVhjM6u2RCZGNTcSIn92ODKcto1bVHyxx5NDYzCJtHBMP-wyInKPSZRvhlZhomwdlCJbVw4MOnpDztar40RC&typo=1 > >>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > >> > >> > >> > >> .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. > / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > >> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > >> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > >> > >> to (un)subscribe > >> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > >> > >> FRIAM-COMIC > >> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > >> > >> archives: 5/2017 thru present > >> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > >> > >> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 > >> http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. > / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. > / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,WFdaFgAm9Nu7jq3Vb7WlZlvlovY3QowWs1j7QoXKgl8Iq_8zHfZGRrqHtjnB-c9I-0pLjdXuR168RAH4vqM1_SoQSi8hV9_QtEjiEP1wv-UZ-w,,&typo=1 > > to (un)subscribe > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,VhCYbMFnFsaDZcxiNy8SzX_CgoTrqYmgvdU1oWvvx0NJLHnjpnRA760Y1RxoM6zmS5SzWoO71UhUAcc-lI09PPLfON0ucT4azIJ9eUnv0rTV7hvIAu4O&typo=1 > > FRIAM-COMIC > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,LEN2IdYFIb5vl-WSR58MSWfxUXIdraFQ_5JwoWxZCMswnTcCbPd4yzIZhImhoNEZ2Ftwhv8x_w0p44I0R5D-UP0jPHEctSh214fM1UJWz0Aoz9u1v7ybCox9YHBV&typo=1 > > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fpipermail%2ffriam_redfish.com%2f&c=E,1,wIEyRxcCrLMX_KNpy2q2jPlTAQAH68eAvIfs5QNRsB19uZb80afP-thiQyWTd6NxMdPjPoxPSxC76Hk6ENZOh-_iOi1Ev2sYxPrZU3hVplLVJUycfDY9rA,,&typo=1 > > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / > ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom > https://bit.ly/virtualfriam > to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: 5/2017 thru present > https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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