Some jargon that "we" use. The kind of causation where time order matters is called "actual causation" or "token causation". Hitting the glass with a a hammer causes it to break.
The other kind is called "statistical" or "probabilistic" causation. Smoking causes cancer. See Glymour, et al "Actual Causation and Thought Experiments". --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Sun, Dec 26, 2021, 12:03 PM Eric Charles <[email protected]> wrote: > As repeatedly hammered in the excellent book "Beyond Versus", Sober is > conflating two things: > > 1) A does not cause C except through B. (A-> B -> C with no other arrows) > > 2) In this data set, knowledge of B lets us predict C exactly as well as > we can predict it with combined knowledge of B & knowledge of A. > > For the first one, time matters a lot (assuming standard forward-casualty > views), and for the latter it doesn't matter in the slightest. As Glen > points out, it could easily be bidirectional. > > Also, to Sober's point: YES, if internal mental states existed in a > Cartesian manner, AND we somehow had perfect knowledge of them, THEN they > would be higly useful for predicting behavior. But we can all see that > isn't actually a good arguement for believing in them... right? All the > math in the world wouldn't change that.... right? > > But ALSO, don't forget the crucial point behaviorist-Nick should be > making... let's say someone punches you, and you kick them back. Let's > say I happen to be brain scanning when you get punched, and I detect a > signal in your brain that perfectly predicts you will kick back. That > signal, is part of the process by which the other guys punch caused your > kick. The signal is contained in "you kicked back"; it is a component part > of it. That "you kicked" entails all of that stuff, not just the muscle > contractions in your leg, which could be caused by knee-tap reflexes, > external electrical stimulation, or other causes completely unrelated to > the internal process entailed in "you kicked". > > On Mon, Dec 20, 2021, 4:42 PM Frank Wimberly <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Instead of "if A is true then B is true" think "if I know the value of A >> then I know something about the value of B". For instance A = age and B = >> income. >> >> >> --- >> Frank C. Wimberly >> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >> >> 505 670-9918 >> Santa Fe, NM >> >> On Mon, Dec 20, 2021, 2:03 PM <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> I think you mean by a "fork" what we call a "common cause". When two >>> variables are correlated it may be that they have a common cause. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Sober’s word, not mine. Yours is the meaning he seems to give it. The >>> whole article concerns how a causal “fork” breathes life into hypothetical >>> “inner” variables. The abstract concerns how a causal collision breathes >>> life into hypothetical “inner” variables. You and glen agree that order >>> is NOT important, so now I am going to have a rethink. Does it make any >>> sense to distinguish between logical and temporal order? So B is true, >>> given A, speaks to logical order. A CAUSES B speaks to temporal order, >>> unless we have given up on the requirement that the Cause A cannot occur >>> after A itself. >>> >>> >>> >>> N >>> >>> >>> >>> Nick Thompson >>> >>> [email protected] >>> >>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >>> >>> >>> >>> *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly >>> *Sent:* Monday, December 20, 2021 12:02 PM >>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >>> [email protected]> >>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Dear Long Suffering Colleagues >>> >>> >>> >>> I think you mean by a "fork" what we call a "common cause". When two >>> variables are correlated it may be that they have a common cause. >>> >>> --- >>> Frank C. Wimberly >>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>> >>> 505 670-9918 >>> Santa Fe, NM >>> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Dec 20, 2021, 8:17 AM uǝlƃ ☤>$ <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> >>> I don't understand your criticism. What do you think is "cocked up"? [⛧] >>> >>> I'll take a swipe at what might be the problem: The concluding paragraph >>> seems to make the point that forks *are* (reversed) collisions and >>> collisions are (reversed) forks. The key may lie in some preemptive >>> registration of words like "prediction". If you stick to words like >>> "relation" and "correlation" and toss out all the mechanistic/causal >>> language, it might be clearer how forks are collisions and vice versa. The >>> only difference is the *direction* of inference. >>> >>> But to be clear, despite my guess above, I'm asking a question. What do >>> you think is wrong, here? >>> >>> [⛧] For my own convenience, here's the link to the article I *think* >>> we're talking about: >>> methodological behaviorism, causal chains, and causal forks >>> https://behavior.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/BPv45_SOBER.pdf >>> >>> On 12/19/21 10:08 PM, [email protected] wrote: >>> > */Yes! Right! Thankyou! /* >>> > >>> > That is now obvious to you because you know that stuff. But for three >>> weeks it has been driving me crazy. >>> > >>> > >>> > >>> > Now for the second point. >>> > >>> > >>> > >>> > >>> E1 and E2, each causally contribute to a behavior, B. In this case, >>> postulating >>> > >>> > >>> an inner state, I, that is caused by both E1 and E2, and which causes I, >>> affects >>> > >>> > >>> one's predictions concerning the relationship between environment and >>> behavior. >>> > >>> > >>> > >>> > This is from the abstract of the article. Not only do we see the same >>> slip-up with respect to I (I IS after all, the inner state), but we see >>> also that the abstract entertains an article about causal convergence >>> (“collision”), not causal forks. Yet every where else, in the title, or in >>> the body, the article seems to be talking about forks. Even with my weak >>> knowledge of formal logic and probability, I can see that that would make a >>> huge difference. Can you confirm also that that is a cockup, so I don’t >>> spend another month trying to make it make sense? >>> >>> -- >>> "Better to be slapped with the truth than kissed with a lie." >>> ☤>$ uǝlƃ >>> >>> >>> .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - >>> . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> archives: >>> 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >>> >>> >>> .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - >>> . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> archives: >>> 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >>> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >>> >> >> .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: >> 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ >> 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >> > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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