Instead of "if A is true then B is true" think "if I know the value of A then I know something about the value of B". For instance A = age and B = income.
--- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Mon, Dec 20, 2021, 2:03 PM <thompnicks...@gmail.com> wrote: > I think you mean by a "fork" what we call a "common cause". When two > variables are correlated it may be that they have a common cause. > > > > > > Sober’s word, not mine. Yours is the meaning he seems to give it. The > whole article concerns how a causal “fork” breathes life into hypothetical > “inner” variables. The abstract concerns how a causal collision breathes > life into hypothetical “inner” variables. You and glen agree that order > is NOT important, so now I am going to have a rethink. Does it make any > sense to distinguish between logical and temporal order? So B is true, > given A, speaks to logical order. A CAUSES B speaks to temporal order, > unless we have given up on the requirement that the Cause A cannot occur > after A itself. > > > > N > > > > Nick Thompson > > thompnicks...@gmail.com > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly > *Sent:* Monday, December 20, 2021 12:02 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Dear Long Suffering Colleagues > > > > I think you mean by a "fork" what we call a "common cause". When two > variables are correlated it may be that they have a common cause. > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > > > On Mon, Dec 20, 2021, 8:17 AM uǝlƃ ☤>$ <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > I don't understand your criticism. What do you think is "cocked up"? [⛧] > > I'll take a swipe at what might be the problem: The concluding paragraph > seems to make the point that forks *are* (reversed) collisions and > collisions are (reversed) forks. The key may lie in some preemptive > registration of words like "prediction". If you stick to words like > "relation" and "correlation" and toss out all the mechanistic/causal > language, it might be clearer how forks are collisions and vice versa. The > only difference is the *direction* of inference. > > But to be clear, despite my guess above, I'm asking a question. What do > you think is wrong, here? > > [⛧] For my own convenience, here's the link to the article I *think* > we're talking about: > methodological behaviorism, causal chains, and causal forks > https://behavior.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/BPv45_SOBER.pdf > > On 12/19/21 10:08 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote: > > */Yes! Right! Thankyou! /* > > > > That is now obvious to you because you know that stuff. But for three > weeks it has been driving me crazy. > > > > > > > > Now for the second point. > > > > > > > > > E1 and E2, each causally contribute to a behavior, B. In this case, > postulating > > > > > an inner state, I, that is caused by both E1 and E2, and which causes I, > affects > > > > > one's predictions concerning the relationship between environment and > behavior. > > > > > > > > This is from the abstract of the article. Not only do we see the same > slip-up with respect to I (I IS after all, the inner state), but we see > also that the abstract entertains an article about causal convergence > (“collision”), not causal forks. Yet every where else, in the title, or in > the body, the article seems to be talking about forks. Even with my weak > knowledge of formal logic and probability, I can see that that would make a > huge difference. Can you confirm also that that is a cockup, so I don’t > spend another month trying to make it make sense? > > -- > "Better to be slapped with the truth than kissed with a lie." > ☤>$ uǝlƃ > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ > > > .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: > 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ > 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/ >
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