Thanks, Glen, for putting your shoulder to my wheel here.
My first objection is rhetorical. You don't write an abstract about collisions to introduce a paper about forks, not, at least, without explaining yourself somewhere in the article. Second, as the "formula" for screening off, with all it's t1's and t2's and t3's, would suggest that order of events is crucial for screening off. “Pr(R at t1 | I at t2 ) = Pr(R at t1 | I at t2 & S at t1 )” I have been trying to come up with a verbal version of this expression, a project which bores the mathematicians in the group because, for them, the expressions is just the meaning of the concept, and no words are necessary. But I hope that as a person who lives in both worlds, you might comment on it. Screening off means, where A==>B==>C, A has no effect on C other than its effect via B Now, you might be asking me: why the fuck, when Omicron is bearing down on me, and in-laws from all over the virological world are crashing down on me, would I be spilling my seed on this? I suppose it’s like sewing name tags in my clothes before I go into battle. I hope you and Rene are being smarter than we are about to be. Nick Nick Thompson thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> On Behalf Of u?l? ?>$ Sent: Monday, December 20, 2021 9:16 AM To: friam@redfish.com Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Dear Long Suffering Colleagues I don't understand your criticism. What do you think is "cocked up"? [⛧] I'll take a swipe at what might be the problem: The concluding paragraph seems to make the point that forks *are* (reversed) collisions and collisions are (reversed) forks. The key may lie in some preemptive registration of words like "prediction". If you stick to words like "relation" and "correlation" and toss out all the mechanistic/causal language, it might be clearer how forks are collisions and vice versa. The only difference is the *direction* of inference. But to be clear, despite my guess above, I'm asking a question. What do you think is wrong, here? [⛧] For my own convenience, here's the link to the article I *think* we're talking about: methodological behaviorism, causal chains, and causal forks <https://behavior.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/BPv45_SOBER.pdf> https://behavior.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/BPv45_SOBER.pdf On 12/19/21 10:08 PM, <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote: > */Yes! Right! Thankyou! /* > > That is now obvious to you because you know that stuff. But for three > weeks it has been driving me crazy. > > > > Now for the second point. > > > > E1 and E2, each causally contribute to a behavior, B. In this case, > postulating > > an inner state, I, that is caused by both E1 and E2, and which causes > I, affects > > one's predictions concerning the relationship between environment and > behavior. > > > > This is from the abstract of the article. Not only do we see the same > slip-up with respect to I (I IS after all, the inner state), but we see also > that the abstract entertains an article about causal convergence > (“collision”), not causal forks. Yet every where else, in the title, or in > the body, the article seems to be talking about forks. Even with my weak > knowledge of formal logic and probability, I can see that that would make a > huge difference. Can you confirm also that that is a cockup, so I don’t > spend another month trying to make it make sense? -- "Better to be slapped with the truth than kissed with a lie." ☤>$ uǝlƃ .-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --. .- - . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn UTC-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: 5/2017 thru present <https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021 <http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/> http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
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