Le ven. 10 janv. 2025, 07:31, Bruce Kellett <bhkellet...@gmail.com> a écrit :
> On Fri, Jan 10, 2025 at 5:06 PM Quentin Anciaux <allco...@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> Brent, >> >> You’re using a mathematical tool to assign probabilities to events, but >> in a single, eternal history, those probabilities lose their connection to >> reality. For example, if a specific bridge hand never occurs in this unique >> history, then its true probability wasn’t what was calculated—it was >> effectively zero. The calculated probability would then only reflect an >> abstract game, disconnected from the realized world. >> >> In such a framework, the probabilities assigned to events have no actual >> meaning because they do not correspond to any real possibility. They are >> purely formal, a mathematical exercise without any grounding in what >> actually happens. The ensemble you invoke doesn’t exist, so the >> probabilities become a kind of illusion, suggesting possibilities where >> none exist. >> > > When you roll a die, the probability of a four is 1/6. Do the other > possibilities have to exist? Even if they do, they have no influence on the > outcome you actually observe. Probabilities are useful for predicting > possible outcomes; so I can, in advance, predict that the possibility that > I shall get a four is 1/6. That is all there is to it. That is what > probabilities do. There is no need for the other possible outcomes to > exist, either in advance or after the fact. They play no role, outside of > your imagination. > > Bruce > Bruce, The difference with your die example is that in a single-history framework, the probabilities we assign are only meaningful if the ensemble of possible outcomes has some kind of reality. When you roll a die, the probability of a four being 1/6 relies on the existence of a mechanism where all six sides are genuinely possible outcomes before the roll. If we later observe that, in the single history of the universe, a four never occurs, then its actual probability was not 1/6—it was zero. (It’s an example) In a single-world view, the other possibilities never had any reality at all—they were not actualized, not even hypothetically. So, the act of assigning probabilities becomes a purely formal exercise, disconnected from what can or cannot happen. The other sides of the die are reduced to abstractions, with no causal role in the observed outcome. Probabilities are indeed tools for predicting outcomes, but their usefulness depends on the assumption that the possibilities they describe have some grounding in reality. Without that grounding, they become empty numbers. In frameworks like many-worlds, those possibilities exist as actualized outcomes in other branches, giving substance to the probabilities. But in a single-history framework, the unobserved possibilities never existed, making the probabilities feel like a game of imagination rather than a reflection of the world. If the "other possible outcomes" have no reality, even as hypothetical constructs, then the act of predicting probabilities loses its explanatory value. They become detached from the reality they aim to describe. That’s the fundamental issue I’m pointing to. Without some ontological weight for the ensemble of possibilities, probabilities are just formal tools with no connection to what actually happens. Quentin > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLSfXvyqYLkZ946vaCft0JQ8%3DK8kPrw4us%2BO0%3DNbfT_iXw%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLSfXvyqYLkZ946vaCft0JQ8%3DK8kPrw4us%2BO0%3DNbfT_iXw%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAMW2kAo5LZokZ5YgaJpMRWSM7tZZsf6caWbAz6amCiBbfB5WqQ%40mail.gmail.com.
