On Fri, Jan 10, 2025 at 5:06 PM Quentin Anciaux <allco...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Brent, > > You’re using a mathematical tool to assign probabilities to events, but in > a single, eternal history, those probabilities lose their connection to > reality. For example, if a specific bridge hand never occurs in this unique > history, then its true probability wasn’t what was calculated—it was > effectively zero. The calculated probability would then only reflect an > abstract game, disconnected from the realized world. > > In such a framework, the probabilities assigned to events have no actual > meaning because they do not correspond to any real possibility. They are > purely formal, a mathematical exercise without any grounding in what > actually happens. The ensemble you invoke doesn’t exist, so the > probabilities become a kind of illusion, suggesting possibilities where > none exist. > When you roll a die, the probability of a four is 1/6. Do the other possibilities have to exist? Even if they do, they have no influence on the outcome you actually observe. Probabilities are useful for predicting possible outcomes; so I can, in advance, predict that the possibility that I shall get a four is 1/6. That is all there is to it. That is what probabilities do. There is no need for the other possible outcomes to exist, either in advance or after the fact. They play no role, outside of your imagination. Bruce -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLSfXvyqYLkZ946vaCft0JQ8%3DK8kPrw4us%2BO0%3DNbfT_iXw%40mail.gmail.com.
