On 30 Nov 2020 at 14:58, Mark Laity-Snyder via EV wrote: > There is nothing that can be done to change EVs becoming the ONLY car > that will be sold ... the only reason to buy an ICE will be if you like > burning money. Throw Autonomous vehicles into the mix .... These are > things that no one can stop because the economics will force it.
I could be wrong, but I think that you're way too optimistic (or by some people's standards, pessimistic :-). I expect to live about another 20-25 years but I don't expect to see any of this happen in my lifetime. In fact, increasing adoption of EVs will cause the price of liquid fuel to decline where it's not regulated. That will sustain interest in ICEVs in nations, such as the US, where governments are fully subject to regulatory capture and don't operate in the general public interest. Nearly full EV takeover may happen in parts of Asia and Western Europe. There are nations that plan it that way, for good reasons, and I cheer that trend. But that won't happen everywhere, and probably not in the US. Just as the automakers continue to sell less-safe 30+ year old designs in nations where safety regulations don't require vehicles to be crashworthy, they'll carry on selling their aging but profitable (fully amortized) ICEV designs in nations without environmental laws that discourage them. I'm also skeptical about the future of SDVs (self driving vehicles). I think that they'll eventually, maybe soon, take over in closed-circuit uses, but probably not on public roads. I think that they'll be pushed out for sale too soon, and the resulting spectacular and highly publicized fatal accidents will sour the public on them. We may also see legislation against them. Limited features such as driver assistance - basic Tesla autopilot functionality, lane-holding features, collision avoidance, "smart" speed limiters - yes, absolutely. But full self driving - I don't think so, not on public roads, not in my lifetime. I think that laws in most places will require that a driver always be present with hands on the wheel. In fact I predict that hands-on-the-wheel violations will become big money-makers for local police, the way speed traps are today. I wouldn't be surprised to see automakers required to fit police-accessible intrusive surveillance systems to enforce this. But again, I could be wrong. David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it. Use my offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = When profits rise it's growth; when wages rise it's inflation. -- anonymous = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
