I think the big issue will be dealing with the nature of the crashes.
While we have plenty of accidents and fatalities with human drivers
today, most of the time those humans mitigate the accident by reacting
and doing something. That probably helps, even if the result includes a
fatality (but some survivors). Putting statistics aside for a moment,
consider that you are "helpless" in an autonomous car crash.
With autonomous vehicles, I see most failures as being catastrophic.
That is, the software will be completely unaware there is a pending
crash. Of course, it depends on the details of the situation.
Regardless, I think - if enough autonomous car deaths occur - people
will fear the prospect of a catastrophic crash more than they fear being
involved in a mitigated human-controlled crash.
In other words, if you are a safe, alert driver, will you be
statistically more likely to die in an autonomous car crash then in one
where you are in control - or vice versa? Overall, I'm quite certain the
statistics will point to the autonomous car being safer. But maybe not
for a small percentage of truly careful drivers.
Peri
------ Original Message ------
From: "Cor van de Water via EV" <[email protected]>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <[email protected]>
Sent: 26-Jul-16 10:57:17 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Fwd: EVLN: GM's 1st 200mi EV will launch as a
driverless (autonomous) Lyft platform
Hi Paul,
No problem - you are free to disagree.
I predict that within 10 years nobody wants to deal with all those
distracted drivers who are trying to drive while also staying in
contact with their family, answering customers and colleagues and
keeping their Facebook status updated. (Almost) everyone will gladly
give the challenges of navigating the road to the self-driving car in
the same way that you hire a driver today to bring you without the
stress and fatigue of driving yourself.
Indeed, there will be accidents and fatalities. But face it - today
there are plenty of those as well without the machines, simply because
humans take a risk. Yesterday I almost crashed because someone decided
that they should try to cross the street coming from behind a van
blocking the view of oncoming traffic.
Blinded by glaring sunlight? Indeed a cause of many crashes today.
Totally preventable with good sensors. Radar is not bothered by
sunlight.
I think Tesla and others are onto something good when they see that
long distance transportation and taxi services are where a lot of money
can be found, though I suspect that a long-distance truck will still
have one human on board (compared to two today, where they drive
alternatingly today to keep the vehicle on the road as much as
possible). In future the truck will drive itself while lumbering along
on the freeway while the human sleeps/rests. At source and destination
as well as at (recharge) stops, the human will take over and drive the
truck and do all that is necessary to load/unload.
But hey, I have been wrong before so, as always: time will tell.
The fact that many dozens of Google self-driving cars are already on
the road and without much problems, tells me which direction we are
headed.
Cor van de Water
Chief Scientist
Proxim Wireless
office +1 408 383 7626 Skype: cor_van_de_water
XoIP +31 87 784 1130 private: cvandewater.info
http://www.proxim.com
This email message (including any attachments) contains confidential
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received this message in error, please delete it and notify the sender.
Any unauthorized use, disclosure, distribution, or copying of any part
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-----Original Message-----
From: EV [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of paul dove via
EV
Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2016 7:03 AM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Fwd: EVLN: GM's 1st 200mi EV will launchas
adriverless(autonomous) Lyft platform
Cor,
I disagree completely. It is likely we will never have self driving
vehicles on the freeway or in any other venue.Personally I think this
is an exercise doomed to failure. The road is a complicated place and
cannot be compared toair flight where few obstacles are encountered.
This is evidenced by the Tesla that drove under the Semi.
One day I was driving and the vehicle in front of me swerved because of
an obstacle in the roadway and of courseI ran over it. It was a piece
of tire from a Semi which flipped up and tore a gash in my drivers
door. How are
sensors going to detect things like that? Or lets say there's a sudden
downpour, or you crest a hill and there's blindingsunlight I believe
that many will attempt this and it will end in failure. It's one this t
insure individuals it's a wholenew thing to insure software..... after
all if the cars driving then the cars at fault....... who pays?
From: Cor van de Water via EV <[email protected]>
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List <[email protected]>
Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2016 12:57 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Fwd: EVLN: GM's 1st 200mi EV will launch as
adriverless(autonomous) Lyft platform
Paul,
The reason they only go 25 MPH is simply that Google wanted a car fast
and so had to choose to classify them as NEV. Any other 4-wheeled
vehicle would have needed crash testing which is not only expensive and
difficult but also a lengthy process. It makes no sense if you are just
creating a testing platform with a few hundred vehicles.
Of course 25 MPH helps in getting slightly longer reaction times due to
low speed, but that is not a concern for Google, they wanted experience
with a self-driving platform in daily traffic situations and that is
what they are getting, never mind that these vehicles can't go on the
freeway - the freeway is not a very interesting place for a
self-driving
vehicle.
Cars being for sale or not has no bearing on the concerns from the
posters stating that they do not want to be around self-driving cars,
well in downtown Mountain View you can't avoid that...
Cor van de Water
Chief Scientist
Proxim Wireless
office +1 408 383 7626 Skype: cor_van_de_water
XoIP +31 87 784 1130 private: cvandewater.info
http://www.proxim.com
This email message (including any attachments) contains confidential
and
proprietary information of Proxim Wireless Corporation. If you
received
this message in error, please delete it and notify the sender. Any
unauthorized use, disclosure, distribution, or copying of any part of
this message is prohibited.
-----Original Message-----
From: EV [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of paul dove via
EV
Sent: Monday, July 25, 2016 2:39 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [EVDL] Fwd: EVLN: GM's 1st 200mi EV will launch as
adriverless(autonomous) Lyft platform
While technically Google cars can drive around they only travel a max
speed of 25mph. They are intended as couriers and they aren't for sale
as far as I know.
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