Hey Simon, I only now remembered:
we actually experimented on the effect of making 1 blunder (random move instead of learned/searched move) in Go and Hex "Blunder Cost in Go and Hex" so this might be a starting point for your question of measuring player strength by measuring all move strengths... https://webdocs.cs.ualberta.ca/~hayward/papers/blunder.pdf On Wed, Mar 30, 2016 at 5:29 AM, Lucas, Simon M <s...@essex.ac.uk> wrote: > In my original post I put a link to > the relevant section of the MacKay > book that shows exactly how to calculate > the probability of superiority > assuming the game outcome is modelled as > a biased coin toss: > > http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/itila/ > > > I was making the point that for this > > and for other outcomes of skill-based games > we can do so much more (and as humans we intuitively > DO do so much more) than just look at the event > outcome - and maybe as a community we should do that more > routinely and more quantitatively (e.g. > by analysing the quality of each move / action) > > Best wishes, > > Simon > > > > On 30/03/2016, 11:57, "Computer-go on behalf of djhbrown ." < > computer-go-boun...@computer-go.org on behalf of djhbr...@gmail.com> > wrote: > > >Simon wrote: "I was discussing the results with a colleague outside > >of the Game AI area the other day when he raised > >the question (which applies to nearly all sporting events, > >given the small sample size involved) > >of statistical significance - suggesting that on another week > >the result might have been 4-1 to Lee Sedol." > > > >call me naive, but perhaps you could ask your colleague to calculate > >the probability one of side winning 4 games out of 5, and then say > >whether that is within 2 standard deviations of the norm. > > > >his suggestion is complete nonsense, regardless of the small sample > >size. perhaps you could ask a statistician next time. > > > >-- > >patient: "whenever i open my mouth, i get a shooting pain in my foot" > >doctor: "fire!" > >http://sites.google.com/site/djhbrown2/home > >https://www.youtube.com/user/djhbrown > >_______________________________________________ > >Computer-go mailing list > >Computer-go@computer-go.org > >http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go > _______________________________________________ > Computer-go mailing list > Computer-go@computer-go.org > http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go > -- Ryan B Hayward Professor and Director (Outreach+Diversity) Computing Science, UAlberta
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