In my original post I put a link to the relevant section of the MacKay book that shows exactly how to calculate the probability of superiority assuming the game outcome is modelled as a biased coin toss:
http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/itila/ I was making the point that for this and for other outcomes of skill-based games we can do so much more (and as humans we intuitively DO do so much more) than just look at the event outcome - and maybe as a community we should do that more routinely and more quantitatively (e.g. by analysing the quality of each move / action) Best wishes, Simon On 30/03/2016, 11:57, "Computer-go on behalf of djhbrown ." <computer-go-boun...@computer-go.org on behalf of djhbr...@gmail.com> wrote: >Simon wrote: "I was discussing the results with a colleague outside >of the Game AI area the other day when he raised >the question (which applies to nearly all sporting events, >given the small sample size involved) >of statistical significance - suggesting that on another week >the result might have been 4-1 to Lee Sedol." > >call me naive, but perhaps you could ask your colleague to calculate >the probability one of side winning 4 games out of 5, and then say >whether that is within 2 standard deviations of the norm. > >his suggestion is complete nonsense, regardless of the small sample >size. perhaps you could ask a statistician next time. > >-- >patient: "whenever i open my mouth, i get a shooting pain in my foot" >doctor: "fire!" >http://sites.google.com/site/djhbrown2/home >https://www.youtube.com/user/djhbrown >_______________________________________________ >Computer-go mailing list >Computer-go@computer-go.org >http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go _______________________________________________ Computer-go mailing list Computer-go@computer-go.org http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go
