So changing the komi doesn't actually improve your confidence interval. If (as Darren said) the win percentage is a crude estimate of the final score, then changing komi would do nothing to change the results one got (and at extremes biases it badly). Moving the ratios closer to 50/50 (by whatever means) at the high end changes the variance of the data, and in a world where there's a 1:1 correspondence between score and win ratio does nothing to change one's confidence that the highest ranked node should be.
Of note there is that the goal, of any method chosen, is to make the ranking of individual moves as accurate as possible. It can do that by either increasing the number of simulations or by increasing the granularity of the metric. This second point seems more like a testbed for that sigmoid function paper than for dynamic komi, but that's just my guess. Of course what would be most preferable would be lots of data. Arguing with guesses instead of data is silly. ~ 2009/7/14 terry mcintyre <terrymcint...@yahoo.com>: > Maybe we should go back to the question which dynamic komi is an attempt to > solve: how to obtain better discrimination when every move seems to be > clustered near "I am so freaking dead" or "I am so far ahead", as the case > may be. > > Terry McIntyre <terrymcint...@yahoo.com> > > “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” -- > Aesop > ________________________________ > From: Stefan Kaitschick <stefan.kaitsch...@hamburg.de> > To: computer-go <computer-go@computer-go.org> > Sent: Tuesday, July 14, 2009 3:17:38 PM > Subject: Re: [computer-go] Re: Dynamic komi in commercial programs > > Dynamic komi in a sense means that the bot is deluding itself on purpose. > Obviously this is dangerous medicine, a kind of magic mushroom. > So what could be worse than a deluded bot? > I say, letting a monkey play could be worse. > And monkeys' play is what you get from an mc bot when all possible moves > come back with indistinguishably > wonderful or terrible win rates. > Adding a wishful (or pessimistic) komi will distort reality, but will help > create bigger win rate differences between moves. > It should be possible to assign costs to both dynamic komi and to > insufficiently spreading win rates between moves. > My hypothesis is, that with unstable groups on the board, the win-rate > spread will tend to be larger then with stable groups. > So with proper balancing, the bot should refuse to take dynamic komi when he > sees a chance to win outright. > > Stefan > > > > _______________________________________________ > computer-go mailing list > computer-go@computer-go.org > http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ > _______________________________________________ computer-go mailing list computer-go@computer-go.org http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
