Maybe I did something wrong, but dimwit aces this one:
10k 100k 1M
--------------------------------
dimwit-0.48r 1.000 1.000 1.000
This is the output at the end of those searches:
score=1 thr=5 moves=20393 PV=(10001) B8(9407) D6(369) H9(361) J9(9) D4(4) D3
score=0.99998 thr=7 moves=160963 PV=(100001) B8(98744) B9(4023) H9(4018)
F6(312) A9(596) D4(49) J7(44) H1
score=0.999998 thr=14 moves=572527 PV=(1000001) B8(998389) D4(40160)
H9(40155) F6(3121) J9(3116) J2(141) J7(134) B9
On Dec 12, 2007 7:21 PM, Hideki Kato <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Hi Gunnar,
>
> Gunnar Farnebäck: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> >Heikki Levanto wrote:
> > > On Mon, Dec 10, 2007 at 04:08:48PM -0500, Don Dailey wrote:
> > >> Would you rather be 95% confident of a win or 90% confident? There
> is
> > >> only 1 correct answer to that question.
> > >
> > > Yes, if you can offer me reliable confidence numbers. We all (should)
> >know
> > > that MC evaluations suffer from systematic problems that can not just
> be
> > > averaged away statistically.
> > >
> > > Compare these two positions:
> > >
> > > playout_benchmark 10000
> > > = Initial board:
> > > komi 7.5
> > > A B C D E F G H J
> > > 9 . . . . . O O O O 9
> > > 8 O O O O O O O O O 8
> > > 7 O O O O O O O O O 7
> > > 6 O O O O O O O O O 6
> > > 5 # # # # # # # # # 5
> > > 4 O O O # # # # # # 4
> > > 3 O O O O . # # # # 3
> > > 2 . O O O . # # # . 2
> > > 1 # . O O . # # . # 1
> > > A B C D E F G H J
> > > Performance:
> > > 10000 playouts
> > > 0.032002 seconds
> > > 312.481 kpps
> > > Black wins = 1937
> > > White wins = 8063
> > > P(black win) = 0.1937
> > >
> > >
> > > playout_benchmark 10000
> > > = Initial board:
> > > komi 7.5
> > > A B C D E F G H J
> > > 9 . # . . . O O O O 9
> > > 8 O O O O O O O O O 8
> > > 7 O O O O O O O O O 7
> > > 6 O O O O O O # # # 6
> > > 5 # # # # # # # # # 5
> > > 4 O O O # # # # # # 4
> > > 3 O O O O . # # # # 3
> > > 2 . O O O . # # # . 2
> > > 1 . . O O . # # . # 1
> > > A B C D E F G H J
> > > Performance:
> > > 10000 playouts
> > > 0.084006 seconds
> > > 119.039 kpps
> > > Black wins = 7746
> > > White wins = 2254
> > > P(black win) = 0.7746
> > >
> > >
> > > Which one is better, 77% or 19%?
> >
> >This reminds me of the first testcase I wrote when I started with
> >MonteGNU. Black to play, no komi.
> >
> > A B C D E F G H J
> > 9 . . O O X . X . X 9
> > 8 . . . O X . X O X 8
> > 7 O . O O X X O O X 7
> > 6 O O O . X . X O O 6
> > 5 X X X X X O O O . 5
> > 4 . . X . O O . O . 4
> > 3 X X O X O . + O . 3
> > 2 X X O X O . . O . 2
> > 1 . O O O O . . . . 1
> > A B C D E F G H J
> >
> >Naturally B has to play B8, or white plays there and wins big. This is
> >trivial to find for a classic program and easy enough for a Monte
> >Carlo program. What's interesting is that it takes some work to make
> >black think that it has better than even winning chances after B8. The
> >Monte Carlo code in GNU Go CVS version gets 0.079 with 10k, 0.387 with
> >100k, and 0.475 with 1M simulations. I suspect that stronger programs
> >tend to be more optimistic about winning chances here. So please fill
> >in this table if you have an MC program:
>
> I've tested by my latest version of GGMC Go (ggmc-x86-v2RaveQ on
> CGOS, rated 2039 ELO now, which is about 100 ELO weaker than
> MonteGNU).
>
> > 10k 100k 1M
> >--------------------------------
> >GNU Go CVS 0.079 0.387 0.475
>
> GGMC v2 0.212 0.244 0.342
>
> BTW, will GNU Go CVS be new version of GNU Go with MC?
>
> -Hideki
>
> >The sgf file is attached, load it before the first move. The positions
> >before move 3 and 5 are also relevant tests.
> >
> >/Gunnar
> >---- inline file
> >_______________________________________________
> >computer-go mailing list
> >computer-go@computer-go.org
> >http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
> --
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Kato)
> _______________________________________________
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> computer-go@computer-go.org
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>
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