Another interesting number I found is they delay between the rebound in GDP and the rebound in employment. The figure that I used for each is the number of quarters after the first quarter of a recession for the gdp/employment to once again be a historical high. The numbers are
year gdp employment 1949 4 6 1953 5 7 1957 4 6 1960 4 6 1969 3 7 1974 7 8 1980 3 3 1981 6 8 1990 4 8 2001 4 13+ For the most part, the delay between GDP and employment is 2 quarters or less. There are three exceptions to this. In 1969, it was 4 quarters. But, this is a bit of an anomoly, because there was almost a double dip recession, with the GDP falling in the 3rd quarter of 1970...which help prolong the unemployment dip. The second is 1990, which again had a 4 quarter gap. This time, there was no anomoly in the GDP, it kept rising throughout the unemployment dip. The final one is the 2001 recession. They gap is 9 quarters and counting...well unless March jobs are up 7 million from February. :-) Expectations are for it to be at least 12 quarters. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
