--- Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > The US numbers have shifted towards going in without > the UN, but the trend > polls that I have seen in other countries have > indicated a firming up of > the opinion that they will approve of a war only > with a UN mandate. I know > that Gautam is fairly optimistic that a quick US > victory will change > opinions. I'm not so sanguine. I can see Tony > Blair having to back off > involvement in the war because he could lose his job > if he forces the > issue. I can see the Spanish government falling too > if they support us too > strongly. I think France is playing this > possibility for all its worth. > > Dan M.
Me too. I do think that _British_ opinion will change with a quick victory - has there ever, in all of history, been an unpopular victorious war? But I don't think French public opinion will change either way. Note, btw, that this was, in my opinion, the single largest mistake made by the Bush Administration, and it goes all the way back to the early days of Afghanistan. The Administration, at the behest of the Pentagon, refused France's offer of military aide, for the good reason that France's military was so far behind the American one that this would actually be a hindrance, not a help. This is a classic example of a situation where military necessity should be overrided by strategic (i.e. political) concerns. Before World War I, General Joffre was asked how many British troops he needed to defend France. He replied, "One, and we will put ensure that he is shot." His point was the involving _any_ British troops in combat would, almost certainly, bring wholehearted British support fairly soon. I don't know if France's hostility to the United States is so deeply ingrained that having American and French soldiers fighting side by side in Afghanistan wouldn't have helped, but it should have been tried. I also wonder how different things would look if Schroeder had lost in Germany. France, isolated in Europe, would not, I think, have acted in this fashion. Without a Franco-German Axis, they are nothing. World opinion would look a lot different if this was all of the governments of the West, plus Japan and Australia (culturally, a member of the West) were standing together in this situation - something that would have happened, I think, if the CDU were running Germany right now. Gautam __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Web Hosting - establish your business online http://webhosting.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
