According to my analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Agoriculture [redacted] has become basically impossible. I'd like some feedback on the general logic, if anyone in the list understands this subject (I don't).
Basically, every time we plant is a bet. That bet has a chance of success (relating to Weather and Duration), and a payoff (relating to Seed Cost and Sell Price). Since we are doing sequential, independent bets, the so-called Kelly criterion applies. Unfortunatly, all crops but one in Autumn have negative Kelly fraction. And this will mostly always be the case because the chance of Bad Weather is so high. Am I right? Or is this wrong? I admit that I was mad with the introduction of Weather, but this does make it a less solvable game, which I guess is a good thing. -- juan
