On Thu, 2026-01-08 at 17:04 -0300, juan via agora-discussion wrote: > According to my analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Agoriculture > [redacted] has become basically impossible. I'd like some feedback on the > general logic, if anyone in the list understands this subject (I don't). > > Basically, every time we plant is a bet. That bet has a chance of success > (relating to Weather and Duration), and a payoff (relating to Seed Cost > and Sell Price). > > Since we are doing sequential, independent bets, the so-called Kelly > criterion applies. > > Unfortunatly, all crops but one in Autumn have negative Kelly > fraction. And this will mostly always be the case because the chance of > Bad Weather is so high. > > Am I right? Or is this wrong? > > I admit that I was mad with the introduction of Weather, but this does > make it a less solvable game, which I guess is a good thing.
I've been doing the analysis myself. It is possible that the numbers are now wrong, so if farming is never worth it we can adjust the numbers until it is balanced. That said, I'm not sure I agree with your calculations: for example, I would have planted Okra last week had the weather been better, and I believe Bell Pepper and Cabbage (Summer) are both still worth it. You may have been rounding incorrectly with respect to bad weather rolls? (For example, planting either Bell Pepper or Cabbage early in the week means that you are risking only one bad weather roll: the 2/3 chance of success is large enough to make the risk worth it.) I do like the way that sometimes planting earlier in the week is better, and sometimes planting late in the week is better (although it's possible it makes the game too timing-sensitive, I assumed it was always meant to be a somewhat time-sensitive game, just like real farming). -- ais523
