Is this including how we can affect a Crop through togetherness? ❤️ -- 4st putting jesters cap back on, it fell off while mobile
On Thu, Jan 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ais523 via agora-discussion < [email protected]> wrote: > On Thu, 2026-01-08 at 17:04 -0300, juan via agora-discussion wrote: > > According to my analysis, I have come to the conclusion that Agoriculture > > [redacted] has become basically impossible. I'd like some feedback on the > > general logic, if anyone in the list understands this subject (I don't). > > > > Basically, every time we plant is a bet. That bet has a chance of success > > (relating to Weather and Duration), and a payoff (relating to Seed Cost > > and Sell Price). > > > > Since we are doing sequential, independent bets, the so-called Kelly > > criterion applies. > > > > Unfortunatly, all crops but one in Autumn have negative Kelly > > fraction. And this will mostly always be the case because the chance of > > Bad Weather is so high. > > > > Am I right? Or is this wrong? > > > > I admit that I was mad with the introduction of Weather, but this does > > make it a less solvable game, which I guess is a good thing. > > I've been doing the analysis myself. It is possible that the numbers > are now wrong, so if farming is never worth it we can adjust the > numbers until it is balanced. > > That said, I'm not sure I agree with your calculations: for example, I > would have planted Okra last week had the weather been better, and I > believe Bell Pepper and Cabbage (Summer) are both still worth it. You > may have been rounding incorrectly with respect to bad weather rolls? > (For example, planting either Bell Pepper or Cabbage early in the week > means that you are risking only one bad weather roll: the 2/3 chance of > success is large enough to make the risk worth it.) > > I do like the way that sometimes planting earlier in the week is > better, and sometimes planting late in the week is better (although > it's possible it makes the game too timing-sensitive, I assumed it was > always meant to be a somewhat time-sensitive game, just like real > farming). > > -- > ais523 >
