On 2019-10-15 16:18:PM, Matt Mahoney wrote:
Prediction markets are more interesting. In the last election, the
markets gave Trump a 30% chance of winning even though every poll said
he would lose.
A more interesting result is that you can't predict future prices to
profit in any market because the current price is already the best
estimate.
If that were true there would be no consistently-successful investors.
In fact there are factors such as inside information and
latency that mean that you can sometimes bet and win.
Check out the rise of high-speed traders a decade ago. They found
out that they could make money just by surfing on the trends.
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|im |yler http://timtyler.org/
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