On Tue, Oct 15, 2019 at 3:20 PM Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote:
> The problem with using compression to predict events is that you can still > pick models > No you can't. The model has been selected. That's the whole point of comparing models by the size of their resulting executable archives of the dataset. > ...to get any result you want. Even when you have a lot of data. Could you > compress world population data or GDP or life expectancy to predict 50 > years out? I could. What result would you like? > In the limit, include all data ever cited in all social science papers -- and throw in the bioinformatic explosion of DNA and health data for good measure -- as a single dataset. Now, make _that_ dataset the corpus and pit against each other the various schools of thought (most of which are quasi-religious sects posing as social science schools). The problem is that Kolmogorov's language dependent constant is bigger than > the result you are looking for. > Not if we're talking the kind of data that should go into a grand unified model of society. > Prediction markets are more interesting. In the last election, the markets > gave Trump a 30% chance of winning even though every poll said he would > lose. > Do you really think that a maximally compressed wide range of longitudinal social data would not: A) include a latent demographic variable that, upon reflection, would be easily identified as "the white working class", B) assign high significance to the extreme and long-running mismatch between public opinion and actual immigration policy <http://jimbowery.blogspot.com/2016/09/diversity-vs-human-development.html>, C) include a substantive causal influence by immigration on various measures of "discontent" among "the white working class" D) include a substantive causal influence on "voter discontent" and electoral turnout -- positive or negative depending on whether the most salient issues are front and center (ie: "Build The Wall" as war chant at Trump rallies) ? If so, why would not genuine scientists using such a model produce a higher probability of Trump getting elected than 30%? Perhaps it wouldn't but you have to admit, the question is one that needs to be tested rather than dismissed out of hand -- particularly given what is at stake in the current climate of hysterical opposition between different schools of social thought. Keep in mind, we're quite clearly heading into a near term future in which the country will go the way of California. I'm not saying prediction markets should be abandoned in favor of lossless compression of a wide range of longitudinal measures related to human ecology. I'm saying we'd better get our act together about this stuff before all hell breaks loose and that means trying a variety of techniques to defuse this ticking bomb. > > A more interesting result is that you can't predict future prices to > profit in any market because the current price is already the best estimate. > > On Tue, Oct 15, 2019, 12:55 PM James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: > >> If you would find it interesting to subject social theories to the >> lossless compression model selection criterion, you should vote up this >> question at metaculus.com >> >> >> https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-of-data-be-accepted-as-a-model-selection-criterion-in-the-social-sciences/ >> >> >> metaculus.com is a quasi-delphi method polling site. >> >> On Fri, Oct 11, 2019 at 2:14 PM James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Most urgently: To head off imminent civil war by, instead, resolving >>> disputes over consequences of social policy to be resolved with the degree >>> of lossless compression as the model selection criterion. >>> >>> Think about this, guys: >>> >>> Chicago has one of the highest rates of gun violence of any city in the >>> world. Downstate Illinois is typical of The Nation of Settlers: Radically >>> supportive of individualism including the right to keep and bear arms. The >>> Illinois governor is from a wealthy Chicago real estate family. Property >>> values in Chicago are brought down by its gun violence. The Illinois >>> legislature recently considered widespread gun confiscation under an >>> interpretation of the 2nd, 9th, 10th, and 14th amendments. Downstate >>> Illinois citizens immediately formed armed militias prepared to fight to >>> the death. For now, the Illinois government has backed off. >>> >>> There is a trend throughout the US for states -- particularly those in >>> opposition to Trump -- to invoke State nullification under their >>> interpretations of the 9th, 10th, and 14th amendments. In some cases, >>> these attempts at nullification are entirely Constitutional, as in repeal >>> of drug laws that the Feds want to retain control over without a >>> Constitutional grant of power. In most cases, though, these are clear >>> violations of the US Constitution, such as "sanctuary States", like >>> California, that obstruct legitimate Federal powers. >>> >>> Moreover, there is a clear trend toward polarization in the body politic >>> over social policy -- primarily between urban and rural populations. At >>> this point the polarization is so extreme that there is little likelihood >>> of a peaceful resolution unless rationality can be imposed on the "national >>> conversation" over social policy and its implications for the etiology of >>> social ills. >>> >>> If violence breaks out, here's how its going to go down: >>> >>> 1) During a cold snap, the natural gas and electric grid supplies of the >>> major cities will go down simultaneously. >>> 2) The water supplies of the major cities will go down simultaneously. >>> 3) Transportation infrastructure into the major cities will go down >>> simultaneously. >>> >>> 100 million people will die, primarily in the major urban areas like >>> NYC, Chicago, Detroit, LA, SF, Miami, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Portland >>> (OR), Seattle and Houston. >>> >>> Conflict will spread to all areas of the West that have permitted large >>> scale immigration from non-Western countries. >>> >>> The likely response of the centers of power will be dispersion of >>> biological agents targeted at rural genotypes. >>> >>> 25% of Western populations will die. >>> >>> On Fri, Oct 11, 2019 at 10:03 AM <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> The Lord. >>>> >>>> Well. Good question. I've tasted life and want more. I figured out I'm >>>> going to die and I'm planning all my time into working on a big plan, >>>> resisting all fun and valuing my plan instead. >>>> >>> *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + delivery > options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Td4a5dff7d017676c-M32c1c3d7ea7ba8f0e522dafb> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Td4a5dff7d017676c-M09ee62283276f3d3a685f361 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
