My goal 20 years ago was to produce AGI, maybe a chatbot. But nobody knew how to do it at the time. So I did a cost estimate based on the only known working example.
A human brain has 6 x 10^14 synapses. An equivalent sized neural network with 50-100 ms integration time requires 12 to 24 petaflops and a petabyte of RAM. And human knowledge is not a blank slate either. Half of what you know (on the order of 10^9 bits each) is coded in your DNA, equivalent to 300 million lines of code. The obvious application of AGI is automating human labor. The ROI would be world GDP divided by market interest rates, or about USD $1 quadrillion. The fact that we haven't done it yet suggests that AGI is a really hard problem that you will probably fail at if you go it alone. Here is a list of companies that have since produced somewhat useful AI products, and their market caps: Apple (Siri), $1 trillion. Microsoft (Cortana), $1 trillion. Amazon (Alexa), $850 billion. Alphabet (Google), $850 billion. So I did related research in data compression. Some conclusions from over a decade of research: - The best language models are based on neural network algorithms (that I developed and others refined). - Intelligence (measured by prediction accuracy or compression) increases with the log of computing speed and the log of memory. So I got my Ph.D. in 2003 at age 48, made some money, and retired 5 years ago at 59. Now I hang around just to troll the list. :) On Sat, Oct 12, 2019, 12:18 PM <[email protected]> wrote: > pinky and the brain. > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + delivery > options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Td4a5dff7d017676c-M5b8abcea9cfa13a0db857a27> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/Td4a5dff7d017676c-M9b59fd537e358e71af6b5093 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
