"We should also be careful about assuming that broadband speeds will continue to increase just because the graph says so."
[Extrapolating] ________________________________ From: AF on behalf of Ken Hohhof Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2025 11:18 AM To: 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group' Subject: Re: [AFMUG] BEAD We should also be careful about assuming that broadband speeds will continue to increase just because the graph says so. You’ve got to ask what is driving the increase from 4 to 25 to 100 and what applications will require 200, 500, 1000, 1000, 5000? CPU speed hit a plateau, for a while it was number of cores, then we discovered GPUs. Supersonic passenger planes didn’t become mainstream, nor did bullet trains (at least in this country). 8K video fizzled because you have to sit 2 feet away or have a >100 ft screen to tell the difference. I would argue that the current belief that you just can’t live without 100 Mbps to gigabit Internet comes from several factors. - 4K streaming (but 8K ain’t happening) - inefficient use of bandwidth, CDNs bursting several seconds of video at a time because it’s more efficient for their servers - gamers downloading 150 GB game software - everybody in the family watching their own video - advertising by big ISPs - “decoy effect”, where they price medium speed to convince you to just get the highest speed - people signing up for gigabit Internet but never really using more then 50-100 Mbps except to run speedtests - self fulfilling prophecy as government declares 100 Mbps to be the minimum to be called broadband (I’m seeing IT depts adopt this for remote workers) So what applications will drive multigigabit Internet to be essential going forward? Not sure all the hype about AI justifies that. Video resolution has probably hit a plateau, everybody in the family is already streaming their own content, and Gen. Z and beyond are into short form video like YouTube and TikTok not movies and TV shows. The only thing I see on the list is game software size. Since they don’t even try to distribute it on physical media anymore, the sky’s the limit. But the idea that someone will need multigigabit Internet to work from home on a Teams video call is just silly, you can do it all day long in 2.5 Mbps symmetric. And the visions of people accessing telehealth with it or the metaverse and VR, those people are dreaming. People use the Internet for streaming video, gaming, and some people work from home. If they are going to focus on more “speed”, I’d say upstream speed is where people might need more. Nobody wants to look like a dummy by questioning the trend line. But then, where’s my flying car?
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