We should also be careful about assuming that broadband speeds will
continue to increase just because the graph says so. You’ve got to
ask what is driving the increase from 4 to 25 to 100 and what
applications will require 200, 500, 1000, 1000, 5000? CPU speed hit a
plateau, for a while it was number of cores, then we discovered GPUs.
Supersonic passenger planes didn’t become mainstream, nor did bullet
trains (at least in this country). 8K video fizzled because you have
to sit 2 feet away or have a >100 ft screen to tell the difference.
I would argue that the current belief that you just can’t live without
100 Mbps to gigabit Internet comes from several factors.
- 4K streaming (but 8K ain’t happening)
- inefficient use of bandwidth, CDNs bursting several seconds of video
at a time because it’s more efficient for their servers
- gamers downloading 150 GB game software
- everybody in the family watching their own video
- advertising by big ISPs
- “decoy effect”, where they price medium speed to convince you to
just get the highest speed
- people signing up for gigabit Internet but never really using more
then 50-100 Mbps except to run speedtests
- self fulfilling prophecy as government declares 100 Mbps to be the
minimum to be called broadband (I’m seeing IT depts adopt this for
remote workers)
So what applications will drive multigigabit Internet to be essential
going forward? Not sure all the hype about AI justifies that. Video
resolution has probably hit a plateau, everybody in the family is
already streaming their own content, and Gen. Z and beyond are into
short form video like YouTube and TikTok not movies and TV shows.
The only thing I see on the list is game software size. Since they
don’t even try to distribute it on physical media anymore, the sky’s
the limit.
But the idea that someone will need multigigabit Internet to work from
home on a Teams video call is just silly, you can do it all day long
in 2.5 Mbps symmetric. And the visions of people accessing telehealth
with it or the metaverse and VR, those people are dreaming. People
use the Internet for streaming video, gaming, and some people work
from home. If they are going to focus on more “speed”, I’d say
upstream speed is where people might need more.
Nobody wants to look like a dummy by questioning the trend line. But
then, where’s my flying car?
*From:*AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
*Sent:* Thursday, March 27, 2025 9:49 AM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] BEAD
first,cancel bead, that's the right solution.
I'd be more pissed if they paid for just cpe, since they're paying
everybody else just for passing.
this is why government should never subsidize, it messes up natural
order.
fiber is more sustainable
satellite is refunded upgrades
fw is a short term bandaid
On Wed, Mar 26, 2025, 11:15 AM Adam Moffett <dmmoff...@gmail.com> wrote:
Ok. I don't think we're actually very far apart then. If they are
going to use BEAD funding for satellite only for CPE installs, then
would you find that acceptable? I don't know if that's what they'll
do, but historically that's what they did when broadband grants went
to satellite services.
-Adam
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* AF on behalf of Steve Jones
*Sent:* Tuesday, March 25, 2025 11:15 PM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] BEAD
not at all, I'm saying new infrastructure as in new locations are
required as new iterations of minimums come out. satellite, being a
planned obsolescence with scheduled updates allows for the continuous
forward path in the same footprint.
I'm not saying fed dough should go there, I'm saying it shouldn't
exist. but if it's going anywhere that's not fiber, it shouldn't
definetly not go to terrestrial FW that won't have a physical
footprint capable.
it definetly shouldn't be going to 14k access points for 2 customers
since it will never ROI before end of equipment life, and will require
a new handout.
terrestrial FW has the shortest shelf life built into the plant lifespan
On Tue, Mar 25, 2025, 7:48 AM Adam Moffett <dmmoff...@gmail.com> wrote:
Steve,
If you're saying BEAD should help Starlink buy more/newer/better
satellites then I could at least see a rational argument for that,
but those satellites are only intended to have a 5-year lifespan,
so I don't see how that's any different than funding fixed
wireless. And historically when they awarded grants to satellite
it was used to subsidize CPE installation. To me that's a
copout. It's not building infrastructure; it's just inflating
numbers so they can go on TV (or Xwitter) and say they provided
broadband to twice as many people as they actually did.
-Adam
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* AF on behalf of Steve Jones
*Sent:* Monday, March 24, 2025 10:10 PM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] BEAD
Satellite has a planned obsolescence so will maintain cyclical
growth, but will hit the same hurdles. Still a better placement of
fed money than fixed wireless, but not the same as fiber
On Mon, Mar 24, 2025 at 6:09 PM Ken Hohhof <khoh...@kwom.com> wrote:
OK, I see.
BTW, what would you say about satellite?
*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
*Sent:* Monday, March 24, 2025 3:11 PM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] BEAD
Can you meet the FCC minimums today, at the same distances as
you could when the minimums came in? Nope. You would have to
get closer to the customer., that means buildout. and when the
minimum is inevitably 500 mb, youll buildout again, and when
its a gig, youll build out again, getting closer and closer
and closer to the customer each time.
Fiber, you just swap some electronics for the most part.
On Sun, Mar 23, 2025 at 10:34 PM Ken Hohhof <khoh...@kwom.com>
wrote:
I don’t understand why fiber is just some electronics but
wireless requires a buildout. Aren’t they both just some
electronics, but one requires installing a long piece of
glass, while the other just goes through the air? Or free
space, as in “free space loss”? The difference in my mind
is that you don’t need the FCC to sell you spectrum over
glass.
“You see, wire telegraph is a kind of a very, very long
cat. You pull his tail in New York and his head is meowing
in Los Angeles. Do you understand this? And radio operates
exactly the same way: you send signals here, they receive
them there. The only difference is that there is no cat.”
― *Albert Einstein*
*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Chuck
*Sent:* Sunday, March 23, 2025 10:16 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Cc:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] BEAD
Some of the early multimode was monofilament fishing line.
It was not glass.
Sent from my iPhone
On Mar 23, 2025, at 8:39 PM, Bill Prince
<part15...@gmail.com> wrote:
Not really. Early versions of fiber were much larger diameter.
I worked for a company that had implemented fiber
internally back in the 80s, but could not use it when the
fiber got thinner and none of the new connectors would
work on the old fat stuff.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/23/2025 5:51 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
fiber installed in the 80s is capable of ten gig. the
infrastructure stays the same as technology grows.
when I started in wireless we could serve most anybody
with good capacity 15 to 20 miles out all day long.
fiber is just some electronics, wireless requires
build outs. not a drop of tax dollar should go to that
On Fri, Mar 21, 2025, 1:12 PM Josh Luthman
<j...@imaginenetworksllc.com> wrote:
Is GPON good enough? That can only do gigabit and
each port is 2.5G. Should these projects require
NGPON? Or maybe every location should have AE so
they can do 100G to start with.
On Fri, Mar 21, 2025 at 2:01 PM Steve Jones
<thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:
Because in X years they won't be. With fiber
they will be upon the same Infrastructure.
On Fri, Mar 21, 2025, 10:59 AM Josh Luthman
<j...@imaginenetworksllc.com> wrote:
But people that currently have fixed
wireless of 100x20 are sufficiently
served? How does that make any sense?
On Fri, Mar 21, 2025 at 11:44 AM Steve
Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:
they should not allow fixed wireless,
they never should have allowed
technology with a short shelf life
On Thu, Mar 20, 2025 at 9:17 AM Adam
Moffett <dmmoff...@gmail.com> wrote:
Well....
https://bsky.app/profile/craigsilverman.bsky.social/post/3lkiye5n2dk2p
https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/s/seq3uoU1L5
The director of BEAD quit. He
says the previous rules
interpreted the bill to mean that
only FTTH would meet the
performance and future-proofing
requirements. He is claiming that
there are proposed rule changes
that will allow Starlink but not
allow fixed wireless. I don't
know whether the changes
/intentionally/ benefit Starlink,
but this guy is crying foul and
felt strongly enough about it to
resign over it.
-Adam
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* AF on behalf of Ken Hohhof
*Sent:* Thursday, March 20, 2025
12:19 AM
*To:* 'AnimalFarm Microwave Users
Group'
*Subject:* [AFMUG] BEAD
I’m surprised BEAD hasn’t run into
problems because the E stands for
Equity and DEI is now banned.
But if they eliminate the E, would
it just be BAD?
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