Did you watch the analysis on youtube by the peak prosperity guy? He
tore that study an new assh...le...
On 4/27/20 12:59 PM, Bill Prince wrote:
Yah. The one in Santa Clara was 3000 or so self-selected participants
from some sort of promotion through Facebook. The test itself had a
small statistical false positive ratio, but enough to really distort
the conclusions on such a small sample (that wasn't random at all). It
was initiated through the Stanford Hoover Institute. There was another
one in the LA area, but I don't know as much about it.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/27/2020 12:54 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
Some decent antibody test data has just started coming out of New
York. One key of course is you have to randomly select the
participants. I have been working rather than watching the news
today, but I think I saw something about the percent of the
population who seem to have been infected at some point is around 20%
in NYC but an order of magnitude lower in upstate NY. Which makes
sense, and also tends to make me believe the tests are somewhat accurate.
There were a couple studies in California but the size and design of
those studies have been questioned.
*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
*Sent:* Monday, April 27, 2020 2:25 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
Well... here we are one week later, and we just ticked over 1 million
confirmed infections in the US. Let's hope that's the tip of the
iceberg, and that the actual infections is in the neighborhood of
50-80 million. I don't believe the number is actually that high, but
I would believe something around 5-8 million. Either way, it is still
just speculation.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/20/2020 9:33 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
What are the treatments that are now working? I try to be
optimistic about antivirals and convalescent plasma, but right
now they mainly have ventilators, which honestly aren’t very
successful if 70-80% of the people die. They keep doing that
because it’s the textbook therapy for respiratory distress, but
it ain’t working. Even if it were working, ventilators are not a
treatment, they don’t reverse the disease, they are just a
measure to get you oxygen while your body hopefully fights the
infection. And then you have the people experiencing kidney
failure and needing dialysis, they’re not sure if the damage is
permanent.
I hope you’re right that the medical community has learned how to
treat it, but I haven’t heard the evidence for that.
Regarding a vaccine, one interesting piece of information I read
was that even if they develop a successful and safe vaccine (many
challenges including the sensitization problem), then they have
to scale up vaccine production. Right now most vaccines are just
for each new wave of schoolchildren, this would have to be for
the entire population. And not in chicken eggs, it would have to
be in big vats. And the interesting part is they could repurpose
fermentation tanks used for things like brewing beer.
*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com>
<mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
*Sent:* Monday, April 20, 2020 11:20 AM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT still a bit of hope and optimism
Time will tell based on whether it actually starts declining in a
meaningful way, or whether we're going to bump along for a bit.
Remember, the goal was to flatten the curve; it wasn't
necessarily going to reduce the number of infections. I get the
impression that the medical community has learned a lot about how
to actually treat it.
Let's see where we are a week from today (April 27). If we are
over 1 million infections, this may be going a while yet. If it
is under 1 million, I would be more encouraged.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 4/20/2020 8:20 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
Looks a bit Gaussian to me. I hope...
image
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