Iceland looks like a "what it could be" positive result. vs. overwhelmed
ICU's an short on ventilators negative result. So IF we had the
necessary number of ventilators we could expect this. Unfortunately we
don't and so the results here are going to be worse. How worse will
depend upon social isolation working.
Sure doesn't make me feel good seeing Reno looking at this to send
all the construction crews out working on the roads and creating a new
vector of spread... "Oh yeah this is really bad, but let us just take
advantage of this and ignore the risk we are creating" So much FU
going around...
On 3/28/20 1:40 PM, Harold Bledsoe wrote:
What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the
denominator of how many infections there actually are.
Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland. They have
tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms.
This is possible because they don't have a huge population. ;-)
https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/
Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at
the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization
rate.
While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying,
there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU
rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen
all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most
places.
This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much
higher number of infections. I, for one, am encouraged that the
actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing. But this
thing moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no
symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for
flu). That a long time to spread the love around.
On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com
<mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:
With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate.
I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away.
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics
This is another perspective referred to in this article called
"Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and
probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
This is an interesting article:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after
the initial peak is over.
Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into
that cycle.
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