New York has FDA approval to start using an antibody test to identify people who had it, recovered, and may be immune. This may be a key to determining who can safely go back to work.
Abbott has announced a test that can identify positives in 5 minutes. Wider testing may be key to a more nuanced distancing protocol, people who test positive would need stricter isolation than those who test negative. I suspect the current measures are not very effective stopping spread within families. New York is also trialing “convalescent plasma” as a treatment. I haven’t heard much about attempts to approve a vaccine in less than 18 months. You’d think there could be some hope that could be accelerated, a certain amount of risk tolerance might be warranted. Otherwise we’re relying on recoveries for immunity. From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Harold Bledsoe Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 3:41 PM To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics What's missing in estimating the death rate / ICU rate is the denominator of how many infections there actually are. Arguably the best dataset we have at the moment is Iceland. They have tested the highest % of population including people without symptoms. This is possible because they don't have a huge population. ;-) https://www.icelandreview.com/ask-ir/whats-the-status-of-covid-19-in-iceland/ Still, they have tested the highest percent and they are showing at the moment a .2% death rate, .6% ICU rate, 2% overall hospitalization rate. While these are much better numbers than other estimates are saying, there's still some challenges here - the main one being that a .6% ICU rate, while not so large, is still too many to handle if they happen all at once compared to the number of currently open ICU beds in most places. This also points to a reality that we probably have a much, much higher number of infections. I, for one, am encouraged that the actual fatality rate may be much lower than we are hearing. But this thing moves fast and you have something like 50% with mild or no symptoms that can spread it for 14 days (vs. something like 4 days for flu). That a long time to spread the love around. On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 10:46 AM <ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> > wrote: With all of two deaths in Utah we are running a .4% death rate. I am guessing the peak of deaths is 2 to 2.5 weeks away. From: Bill Prince Sent: Saturday, March 28, 2020 9:30 AM To: af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Virus graphics This is another perspective referred to in this article called "Hammer and Dance". It outlines what the various options and probable outcomes might be. It does get into the weeds somewhat. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 3/28/2020 8:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote: This is an interesting article: <https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/ Note the double boom if you relax your social distancing after the initial peak is over. Looks like 10-12 weeks of people dying. We are 2.5 weeks into that cycle. _____ -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- Harold Bledsoe
-- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
