Re: [AFMUG] OT shall we start a pool

Sat, 29 Feb 2020 11:35:42 -0800

Fatalities, no matter what disease, is hugely effected by the performance of health care facilities.  China was very overwhelmed for two months.   They are currently building 17 new hospitals and construction of anything else in the infected cities is completely halted.   I can forward a text from someone's children in Bejing that says exactly that, so this isn't second hand information. Other countries are mostly underwhelmed ( Iran is the exception and their death rate is over China's ).  Most other countries haven't had the time for death rates to be settled vs the explosion of cases, so saying they have a rate is bad statistics.   To compare the death rate you have to compare it to the number of cases when the death was infected not the current number of cases.   The single worst thing about this disease is that the infected are contagious prior to be symptomatic.  That is so freaking weird we aren't dealing with it with any appropriate response. 

On 2/29/20 10:56 AM, Bill Prince wrote:



Interesting that the fatalities  in China are around 3.4%, yet the 
fatalities outside China are only .1%.



Listening to the news this morning, it's become apparent that outside 
of China, no one was prepared, and that they really have not been 
testing. Problems with test kits; like they were not working 
correctly, and secondly, no one was testing.



I believe (now) that this virus has already spanned the globe, and the 
major saving grace is that 80% of the cases are mild or asymptomatic. 
it is, after all, just another corona virus. New or not, we deal with 
viruses like it all the time.



bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>

On 2/29/2020 10:40 AM, Ken Hohhof wrote:


From WHO statement yesterday:

“Outside China, there are now 4351 cases in 49 countries, and 67 deaths.


Since yesterday, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Netherlands and Nigeria 
have all reported their first cases. All these cases have links to Italy.



24 cases have been exported from Italy to 14 countries, and 97 cases 
have been exported from Iran to 11 countries.



The continued increase in the number of cases, and the number of 
affected countries over the last few days, are clearly of concern.”


Thanks, Italy and Iran.


China numbers are looking promising, but Italy 300 new cases and 
South Korea 900.  Number of countries with confirmed cases is around 60.



I see the photos from places like China and S. Korea with soldiers 
spraying public places with disinfectant, and the steps takeout food 
places and stores are taking to avoid transmission, and I wonder if 
that is feasible here.



Meanwhile S. Korea has tested 35,000 people, the US has tested 400.  
Shortage of test kits, and guidelines to only test people who have 
travelled to China. If you can believe the Internet (stupid question) 
Hong Kong is even testing pets.  We don’t even have enough kits to 
test people.


*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> *On Behalf Of *Steve Jones
*Sent:* Saturday, February 29, 2020 11:54 AM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group <af@af.afmug.com>
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT shall we start a pool

Where are they popping up everywhere?


On Sat, Feb 29, 2020, 11:39 AM Robert Andrews <i...@avantwireless.com 
<mailto:i...@avantwireless.com>> wrote:


    That's very realistic.  Local outbreaks are popping up everywhere
    now
    and it's the tip of the iceberg.

    On 02/29/2020 07:35 AM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
    > It’s about a 20 day boat trip. And even if it comes by air it
    will sit
    > at the distributor for a bit. Then a few days in transit to you.
    >
    > We will probably quarantine Chinese stock for a week or two
    just to be
    > safe.
    >
    > I’m more worried about the local out breaks and stock shortages
    than
    > contamination of stock.
    >
    > On Feb 29, 2020, at 10:28 AM, Robert <i...@avantwireless.com
    <mailto:i...@avantwireless.com>
    > <mailto:i...@avantwireless.com
    <mailto:i...@avantwireless.com>>> wrote:
    >
    >> Covid-19 is active for 9 days on cardboard and plastic.
    Hopefully it
    >> arrives more slowly than that.
    >>
    >> On 2/29/20 7:21 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>
    wrote:
    >>> Our boards shipped last week.  So I think things will be OK
    hopefully.
    >>> *From:* Forrest Christian (List Account)
    >>> *Sent:* Friday, February 28, 2020 5:38 PM
    >>> *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
    >>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT shall we start a pool
    >>> Every couple of months a question about "is there anywhere I
    can get
    >>> unpopulated circuit boards manufactured at a reasonable price
    outside
    >>> mainland china?" comes up on a couple of forums/mailing lists
    I'm
    >>> on.   The answer always turns out to be no.   It's amazing that
    >>> somewhere else hasn't figured out how to replicate what China is
    >>> doing as far as the circuit boards go, even if it was double the
    >>> price.   For comparison, US suppliers are typically over 20
    times the
    >>> price - a board that is under a dollar each from China can
    cost $20
    >>> to get made in the USA.
    >>> So, like everyone else, our blank circuit boards come from a
    supplier
    >>> in China.   Right now, things are backlogged, but it looks like
    >>> they're close to caught up.  In an abundance of caution, we went
    >>> ahead and pulled in 6 months worth for anything we're currently
    >>> shipping, so they'll be here in the next few weeks and we
    don't have
    >>> to worry so much.   We haven't inserted an order for the new
    Base 3
    >>> boards yet, but we expect by the time we do sometime next
    week that
    >>> the backlog will be largely cleared from our preferred
    supplier in China.
    >>> On Fri, Feb 28, 2020 at 5:12 PM Lewis Bergman
    >>> <lewis.berg...@gmail.com <mailto:lewis.berg...@gmail.com>> wrote:
    >>>
    >>>     Probably not. It has taken decades for China to build the
    supply
    >>>     chain they have. Some countries, like Vietnam, don't have the
    >>>     infrastructure, much less the slip set to do it
    >>>     I don't doubt they will start planning to diversify, but
    doing it
    >>>     is years away.
    >>>     On Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 5:49 PM Steve Jones
    >>>     <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com
    <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>> wrote:
    >>>
    >>>         I have a suspicion that very soon, one or two major
    companies
    >>>         will announce contracts to move production to another
    >>>         country, like within the next two weeks. Many other will
    >>>         follow suit, diversity in production is probably going to
    >>>         decimate the chinese economy.
    >>>         I expect an unrelated announcement this weekend that will
    >>>         quell the downward spiral, a short recovery on monday.
    >>>         Within a week or so the administration will
    temporarily ease
    >>>         tarriffs on humanitarian reasons
    >>>         By the end of march I think even if the kungflu is still
    >>>         present, it will be less impactful.
    >>>         Recoveries are outpacing deaths now 2:1, new
    infections are
    >>>         beginning to stagnate. we will see a bump as more
    >>>         surveillance comes on board, its loose in california, and
    >>>         they poop on the streets, so there will be some
    controlled
    >>>         outbreaks there, no worse than hepatitis, but the
    plateau is
    >>>         here, excluding some major calamity, like an outbreak in
    >>>         mexico (this will have major geopolitical consequence
    that
    >>>         will heavily reflect in the markets). its probably
    going to
    >>>         do some harm in africa with the locusts, but i dont
    know that
    >>>         africa really impacts markets, they still have ebola
    running
    >>>         around.
    >>>         By the end of march, the market will be on the
    rebound, early
    >>>         april it will pass 30, that will drive an april
    speculative
    >>>         growth between 33 and 35 that will correct back down
    to 29-31
    >>>         in may.
    >>>         around this time production will be back to normal,
    and the
    >>>         reorganized sourcing will be coming on line and the
    vaccine
    >>>         will be moving to the next stage
    >>>         supply chain disruptions will be recovering
    >>>         china will be starving, but humanitarian aid will give
    >>>         everybody a gleeful feeling of global unity.
    >>>         On Fri, Feb 28, 2020 at 5:28 PM <ch...@wbmfg.com
    <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:
    >>>
    >>>             I should have moved it, but I will take the roller
    >>>             coaster ride.  And it was up so high too....
    >>>             *From:* Matt Hoppes
    >>>             *Sent:* Friday, February 28, 2020 3:58 PM
    >>>             *To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
    >>>             *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT shall we start a pool
    >>>             Let it keep going down! I moved everything to Money
    >>>             Market Monday. Once it bottoms out I’ll stick it
    back in
    >>>             stocks.
    >>>
    >>>             On Feb 28, 2020, at 6:45 PM, Darin Steffl
    >>>             <darin.ste...@mnwifi.com
    <mailto:darin.ste...@mnwifi.com>> wrote:
    >>>
    >>>>             I just wanna know when we hit rock bottom so I
    can buy
    >>>>             as much up as possible :)
    >>>>             On Fri, Feb 28, 2020, 4:38 PM <ch...@wbmfg.com
    <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:
    >>>>
    >>>>                 How long before the stock market recovers. Stats
    >>>>                 would suggest 4 months.
    >>>>                 But if the virus actually becomes a “thing”,
    like
    >>>>                 the sky is falling thing,  I am sure that will
    >>>>                 extend this correction.
    >>>>                 --
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