Re: [AFMUG] Fiber

[Adam Moffett]

Data consumption has been having a compound annual growth rate of 15% 
for several years.....basically since Netflix happened.

At this time, if nothing is holding them back then the average peak 
usage per household is about 4mbps.  So on any service under 4mbps over 
subscription is not even a thing anymore.  Assuming the growth continues 
at 15% per year (driven by Ultra HD + Streaming video game services + 
all the other baloney), then that number will be 10mbps in 7 years.   If 
I assume I can really get 300mbps out of an AP, then that's 75 or so 
customers comfortable on that AP now, and that drops to 30 or so over 7 
years.  The growth in consumption won't stop, so where does the next 
increase in bandwidth come from?

I'm curious where we're getting 300-500mbps, but even assuming we can, 
and assuming you have all the right conditions for it, it won't be 
enough in the long run.

I'm not saying it's over now.  Hell, we actually still have paying 
dialup customers.  As long as you're better than satellite then nobody 
will switch until there's fiber or cable built to them so there's going 
to be a very long tail on wireless.  I'm just saying the tail is coming 
soon, and it's time to think about the next plan.

I wouldn't be the first one to make this prediction too early (Doug 
Clark anyone?).  I just don't see where the next capacity increase 
happens.  You'll get diminishing returns on Mod levels higher than 
256QAM, MU-MIMO is here and it was only an incremental improvement, you 
can only increase channel sizes until you're out of spectrum.....and 
you're competing with other operators and even the customer's router for 
those bigger channels.  So what now?  We're 70-80% nLOS here so 
millimeter wave ain't gonna save us.

....or there will be a next big thing in wireless that saves the day.  
Who knows.
....I'm also definitely a pessimist.  I may just be wrong.

-Adam


On 9/6/2019 12:55 PM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
Why? Not neccessarily disagreeing with you... but why do you feel that 
way?

If I can get 300-500megabits out of a site and down to a customer that 
seems like that will hold them for many years to come.

On 9/6/19 12:50 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
Unpopular Opinion time:
DSL is the new dialup.  Wireless is the new DSL.  Nobody wants any of 
those if they can get something better.  You can push the end farther 
down into the future with micro POP's, MU-MIMO, big channel sizes, 
etc; but we're at the top of the hump in the business cycle and the 
tail is looming before us.  Use the cash generated by your wireless 
business to start something new, and/or plan how you'll maximize 
revenue on the long tail.  If fiber ain't your thing that's ok, but 
figure out some kind of plan.

...or I'm wrong.  Time will tell.


On 9/6/2019 12:35 PM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
That being said -- most of the e-mails I get involved circuits I'm 
on, but thanks to rings we don't go down.

On 9/6/19 12:33 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
Imagine if you sent every customer e-mails about every outage every 
time on your network.



-----
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL><https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb><https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions><https://twitter.com/ICSIL> 

Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix><https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange><https://twitter.com/mdwestix> 

The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>


<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

*From: *"Matt Hoppes" <mattli...@rivervalleyinternet.net>
*To: *"Adam Moffett" <dmmoff...@gmail.com>, "AnimalFarm Microwave 
Users Group" <af@af.afmug.com>
*Sent: *Friday, September 6, 2019 11:31:24 AM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] Fiber

That's what everyone keeps saying.... but my fiber provider sends me
e-mails every other week about pole fires taking out fiber, trees 
taking
out fiber, wind taking out fiber, etc.

On 9/6/19 12:30 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
 > When it's broken it can be expensive, but frankly it doesn't 
break that
 > often.
 > -Adam
 >
 > On 9/6/2019 12:29 PM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
 >> Except the contractor gets paid every time the fiber gets broken.
 >>
 >> On 9/6/19 12:18 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
 >>> If you've only got 2 or 3 people *total* then you'd be relying on
 >>> contractors a lot and basically just being an owner/GC.  Your 
capex
 >>> will be higher than with in-house labor, but console yourself 
with
 >>> the idea that the contractor only gets paid once, and you get 
paid
 >>> for 50 years.
 >>>
 >>> -Adam
 >>>
 >>>
 >>> On 9/6/2019 8:30 AM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
 >>>> People ask why I don’t do fiber. The following story pretty much
 >>>> sums it up. For those doing fiber, how do you do it with a 2 
or 3
 >>>> man team?  We’d be run ragged.  How do you stay sain?
 >>>>
 >>>>
 >>>>
 >>>>
 >>>>
 >>>> Someone was logging up in Ogdensburg near Joe Hill and took a 
tree
 >>>> down which took another tree down which took another tree 
down which
 >>>> snapped off the side arms of the utility pole taking out the
 >>>> powerlines which burned the fiber underneath it.
 >>>>
 >>>>
 >>>> Last night about 11 o’clock I drove up there on my way home and
 >>>> found the Crown Castle guys trying to figure out where the fiber
 >>>> damage was, I talk to them for a moment and they were like 
yeah it’s
 >>>> like 2500 feet away from here but we can’t figure out where the
 >>>> fiber goes, I said follow me, so they got over there and 
started work.
 >>>>
 >>>>
 >>>> Zito was already over there fixing their fiber with about 10 
guys
 >>>> and five trucks.
 >>>>
 >>>>
 >>>> I just spun back up there and as of this morning they (both
 >>>> companies) are still trying to figure out why the fiber is 
not working.
 >>>>
 >>>>
 >>>> Add to this the utility easement is on the side of a mountain 
and
 >>>> not right beside the road. These guys had entire teams and 
haven’t
 >>>> fixed 1,500ft of fiber in 12 hours plus had to wait nearly 
7hrs to
 >>>> even access the local due to power lines down.
 >>>>
 >>>>
 >>>
 >>>
 >

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