For everyone's convenience:
https://groups.google.com/a/list.nist.gov/g/pqc-forum/c/RsQbm_AQfzs/m/19o76lsyCwAJ


On Tue, Apr 15, 2025 at 11:55 AM D. J. Bernstein <d...@cr.yp.to> wrote:

> A message has just appeared on pqc-forum claiming yet another attack
> improvement against lattices---improving what are called "dual" attacks
> and breaking earlier claims about those attacks not working; concretely,
> reducing "the security of Kyber-512/768/1024 by approximately
> 3.5/11.9/12.3 bits" below Kyber's security goals in the same cost model
> used in the round-3 Kyber submission.
>
> For comparison, the round-3 Kyber security analysis had claimed that
> "primal" attacks for round-3 Kyber-512 (after patches to Kyber-512 in
> response to earlier security issues) were ~10 bits above the goals, and
> that dual attacks were "significantly more expensive" than that.
>
> The "significantly" slowdown wasn't quantified, so the reader is left
> not even knowing how much improvement there has been. Did these 5 years
> of public attack development reduce the costs of Kyber-512 dual attacks
> by 20 bits? 30 bits? As for the future, how much farther will the cliff
> crumble? We don't know. Continued excitement for researchers! Lattice
> attacks today are far less stable than ECC attacks were two decades ago.
>
> To be clear, I'm not opposing efforts to roll out post-quantum systems:
> on the contrary, we have to _try_ to stop quantum attacks. I'm simply
> saying that we shouldn't be ripping out seatbelts.
>
> ---D. J. Bernstein
>
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