Blumenthal, Uri - 0553 - MITLL writes:
> Sorry, I can’t accept the answer you’re giving.

To clarify, are you continuing to claim that there's "no damage possible
(at least, in the TLS context) caused by PQ DSA break", despite the
facts that (1) upgrades often take a long time and (2) attackers aren't
going to announce their secret attacks?

> then don’t move to PQ DSA until either CRQC is announced

That would be too late. It completely fails to address the large risk of
quantum attacks happening before the first public attack demos, plus it
leaves users vulnerable during the upgrade period.

> or you’re
> certain “enough” (in whatever is your definition of “enough”) that PQ
> DSA is strong/resilient “enough”.

This criterion gives wildly different results depending on who you ask,
and in any case I don't see how it's supposed to be managing the
security risks under discussion.

NSA, for example, claims that a PQ break would be a "breakthrough" and
generally gives the impression of claiming that Dilithium has negligible
risk, meaning that this criterion would say upgrade immediately---which,
of course, is a disaster if Dilithium is actually breakable.

In the opposite direction, organizations paying attention to SIKE and
Rainbow and KyberSlash and so on would take this criterion as saying not
to deploy until the attack picture has settled down. But that's failing
to address the quantum threat.

The sensible way forward is to go ahead with PQ as an extra layer of
security on top of the existing ECC layer. Then we're _trying_ to stop
quantum attacks, while at the same time not making security _worse_ in
case of further PQ breaks.

> To (2) – what makes you think there’s no ECC attack that simply hasn’t
> been announced yet? Perhaps, your whole reliance on ECC is misplaced?

See https://cr.yp.to/papers.html#safecurves for an ECC risk analysis. I
have no idea how this is supposed to be an argument for switching from
ECC to PQ instead of from ECC to ECC+PQ.

---D. J. Bernstein

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