On 11/2/07, shiv sastry <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > On Thursday 01 Nov 2007 11:46 pm, Gautam John wrote: > > A sample of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's wilder—and most accurate—predictions >
> However, more than this gent's prediction successes. I would like to know > where he has failed - because that information is just as important. > > shiv > > > quote from the article: "a computer model he built and has perfected over the last 25 years can predict the outcome of virtually any international conflict, provided the basic input is accurate. " Inaccurate basic input would be his explanation for all the failures? What I would like to know is cases where he too accepts the input data as accurate...and THEN the prediction failed. My father in law,was an amateur astrologer. I still have not been able to figure out, objectively, what was his accuracy was, with forecasts. I think we all tend to remember only the ones which turned out correct and forget the others. But one thing which he used to say was, "Astrology is fairly exact, but if the input data were to be flawed, so would the results be. A difference of a few minutes in recording the time of birth could change someone's horoscope, and then it would appear that it is not accurate." I still have a not-completely-closed mind on the ability of astrology (or any other system) to forecast the future, and one reason has been the number of times my father in law was accurate in his predictions, even when they were inconvenient or went counter to what was *likely* to happen. On the other hand, whatever I read about future forecasting, seems to be accurate about what has already happened, but not so accurate about predictions for the future...Jeanne Dixon is one example that springs to mind...and her famous prediction that the Russians would land on the moon first. After every event, so many "forecasters" crawl out of the woodwork with their "I-told-you-so"s...but I have yet to see, and trach a forecaster who has been steadily accurate for the past, say, decade or so. Deepa.
