Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

Roland Perry wrote: Kenny Sallee writes So the whole 'myth' of Internet doubling every 100 days to me is something someone (ODell it seems) made up to appease someone higher in the chain or a government committee that really doesn't get it. [Whether it was really 100 days, or 200 days...] a s

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

ume the > person > misled public on purpose. > > Thanks! > > --Jessica > > > > > From: Kenny Sallee > To: Jessica Yu ; Andrew Odlyzko > Cc: nanog@nanog.org > Sent: Mon, August 9, 2010 4:01:00 PM > Subject: Re: off-topic:

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

is unfair to assume the person misled public on purpose. Thanks! --Jessica From: Kenny Sallee To: Jessica Yu ; Andrew Odlyzko Cc: nanog@nanog.org Sent: Mon, August 9, 2010 4:01:00 PM Subject: Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

In article <621c1b2c-f7e3-438f-9ddd-d5dc41979...@gmail.com>, kris foster quotes Jeremy Orbell Anyway, the full press release which I quoted from can be read on page 3 of the following PDF:https://www.linx.net/files/hotlinx/hotlinx-20.pdf And on page 2 there's the "Internet Time x4" meme, whi

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

A comment from Jeremy Orbell at LINX: -- The period of growth being discussed predates my own involvement in the industry as I didn't join LINX until 2003. However I do know that LINX regularly announced new traffic milestones at the exchange as they happened back in the late 90s. I've looked b

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

-BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE- Hash: SHA256 At the time these statements were made it was possible to make reasonable assumptions about the size of the Internet. As a Tier 1 knew how much traffic our customer links generated by the size of the link. We knew exactly how much traffic stayed

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

In article , Kenny Sallee writes So the whole 'myth' of Internet doubling every 100 days to me is something someone (ODell it seems) made up to appease someone higher in the chain or a government committee that really doesn't get it. [Whether it was really 100 days, or 200 days...] a statist

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

> Distance * bit-rate equals capacity? What happened to the 'traffic' > component? traffic is not a component of capacity. capicity is an upper bound on traffic. randy

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

On Fri, Aug 6, 2010 at 2:52 PM, Jessica Yu wrote: > > I do not know if making such distinction would alter the conclusion of your > paper. But, to me, there is a difference between one to predict the growth > of > one particular network based on the stats collected than one to predict the > growt

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

In article <4c6030bf.1030...@foobar.org>, Nick Hilliard writes On 09/08/2010 16:12, Christopher Morrow wrote: I think, from another list about 2 yrs ago, the person responsible for this data inside the company at the time (now not there) said someone misinterpreted his stats/numbers... No dou

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

On 7 Aug 2010, at 18:09, Roland Perry didn't exactly write: > 'a good rule of thumb during the late 1990's was that traffic doubled every > 100 days' This is the West, sir. When the legend becomes fact, print the legend. To the original poster, there is another collection of memes (some might

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

On 09/08/2010 16:12, Christopher Morrow wrote: I think, from another list about 2 yrs ago, the person responsible for this data inside the company at the time (now not there) said someone misinterpreted his stats/numbers... No doubt this is true. And I note we haven't even started discussing

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

On Mon, 09 Aug 2010 08:01:12 PDT, "Frank A. Coluccio" said: > re: > Capacity " as measured by OC12-miles, > doubles every four months..." > Now that's a fascinating form of metric in itself. > Distance * bit-rate equals capacity? What happened > to the 'traffic' component? It's a measure of *c

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

On Thu, Aug 5, 2010 at 6:27 PM, Dorian Kim wrote: > Was Mike O'Dell's famous doubling every 100 days just a myth? > Like any good tale, there most likely was an element of truth > behind it. I think, from another list about 2 yrs ago, the person responsible for this data inside the company at th

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

...@umn.edu (Andrew Odlyzko) To: ra...@psg.com Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2010 08:30:44 -0500 Fascinating. Memories may be plastic (something that has been established scientifically), or else we may

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

while most of us seem to remember traffic doubling every nine months or a year (and some have memories of that being the meme then) [0], capacity build was massively above that level. think of the compound rate one gets when one substitutes owned wet glass for a few leased stm-1s. to quote a frie

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

In article , Randy Bush writes my memory is that he said doubling every nine months. Mine too. mo's too. i asked. This isn't just my recollection of what Mike said in 2001, the news item I quoted was printed in 2001. So even if it's a mistaken memory (of the late 90's), it was a mistaken

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

One thing I have heard repeated about one large carrier is that only 10% of their network is used for their Internet product. The remainder of it is used for private leased lines (could also be someone running IP) or another carrier that is leasing a loop or tdm service from them. Jared Mauch

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

Fascinating. Memories may be plastic (something that has been established scientifically), or else we may have yet another inconsistency to add to the pile of others. Is there any documentation about the "doubling every nine months"? I have never seen that particular claim emanating from anyone

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

>> my memory is that he said doubling every nine months. > Mine too. mo's too. i asked. randy

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

Randy Bush wrote: my memory is that he said doubling every nine months. Mine too. jc

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

> I wasn't suggesting LINX traffic was doubling every 100 days (it was > tripling annually), simply pointing out that in 2001 Mike said that "a > good rule of thumb during the late 1990's was that traffic doubled > every 100 days", and going into print with that shows it was an > accepted meme at t

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

In article , Patrick W. Gilmore writes Keeping it in the family a little, Mike was quoted as saying this - see p2: https://www.linx.net/files/hotlinx/hotlinx-3.pdf Although there were two factors here as far as LINX itself was concerned - growth in members as well as growth in traffic from eac

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

Andrew, don't know if you want to research a little bit about this topic and add something to your paper but IMHO there is another Internet related bubble that keeps growing and may end exploding someday. The governance, speculation and commercialization of the Domain Name System. If you are int

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

Internet with no solid data. > Thanks!--Jessica > > > > > ____________ > From: Andrew Odlyzko > To: nanog@nanog.org > Sent: Thu, August 5, 2010 11:38:38 AM > Subject: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble > > Apo

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

rticular network based on the stats collected than one to predict the > growth of the entire Internet with no solid data. > Thanks!--Jessica > > > > > ____________ > From: Andrew Odlyzko > To: nanog@nanog.org > Sent: Thu, August 5, 2010 11:38:38 AM > Subj

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble Apologies for intruding with this question, but I can't think of any group that might have more concrete information relevant to my current research. Enclosed below is an announcement of a paper on technology bubbles. It is based large

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

On Aug 6, 2010, at 12:13 PM, Roland Perry wrote: > In article <5ac3e79a-392b-4d1b-bfc7-2700942fd...@ianai.net>, Patrick W. > Gilmore writes >> Although, as someone active in 2000, I can tell you that traffic did >> not grow 12.55 times per year (doubling every 100 days), or anything >> even close

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

In article <5ac3e79a-392b-4d1b-bfc7-2700942fd...@ianai.net>, Patrick W. Gilmore writes Although, as someone active in 2000, I can tell you that traffic did not grow 12.55 times per year (doubling every 100 days), or anything even close to that. Keeping it in the family a little, Mike was quote

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

Jorge, Many thanks for the comments. To the entire NANOG list: I have received many comments, a few through the list, most off-list. I greatly appreciate all, and will be responding to them all off-list, since this is not an operational matter. If there is interest, I can summarize for the l

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

BTW, in the context of Andrew's paper (very interesting indeed) I believe that one of the issues is that many executives took that "spurt growth" I was referring to in my previous message, as organic growth and used it to make unrealistic projections which in turn led to unrealistic valuations, and

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

As you may recall (because you have been part of it) the 1995-2000 was a period of major consolidation in the ISP industry, metrics were hard to obtain and the ones available were hard to believe. Due to the consolidation of many small networks from various ISPs (I remember that in my former life

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

On Thu, Aug 05, 2010 at 01:38:38PM -0500, Andrew Odlyzko wrote: > Apologies for intruding with this question, but I can't think > of any group that might have more concrete information relevant > to my current research. > > > > Enclosed below is an announcement of a paper on technology bubbles.

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

On Thu, Aug 5, 2010 at 11:38 AM, Andrew Odlyzko wrote: > To get a better understanding of the dynamics of that bubble, to assist > in the preparation of a book about that incident, I am soliciting > information from anyone who was active in telecom during that period. We saw that or better growth

Re: off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

Ask on the Internet History list. Although, as someone active in 2000, I can tell you that traffic did not grow 12.55 times per year (doubling every 100 days), or anything even close to that. -- TTFN, patrick On Aug 5, 2010, at 2:38 PM, Andrew Odl

off-topic: historical query concerning the Internet bubble

Apologies for intruding with this question, but I can't think of any group that might have more concrete information relevant to my current research. Enclosed below is an announcement of a paper on technology bubbles. It is based largely on the Internet bubble of a decade ago, and concentrates