On Thu, Nov 19, 2009 at 3:42 AM, Dr. David Kirkby
<david.kir...@onetel.net> wrote:
> If you believe what Wolfram Research say, there are several million 
> Mathematica
> users. See for example
>
> http://www.wolfram-media.com/products/mathematicabook.html
>
> where it says about a book:
>
> "The definitive reference and tutorial for several million enthusiastic
> Mathematica users around the world"
>
> There are several things that make me question the truth of this. One,
> admittedly not very sophisticated metric, suggests the number of *active*
> Mathematica users might be only 1.71 that of Sage!
>
> First, why do I not believe this several million number?
>
> 1) As an engineer, working in several companies over the years, I've seen very
> little usage of it. Plenty in academia, but little outside.
>
> 2) Do a job search on monster.com and see how many jobs require Mathematica
> knowledge. Then compare it to MATLAB, and you will find far more companies 
> want
> MATLAB skills than want Mathematica. If there were several million users, I
> would expect to be able to find lots of jobs requiring Mathematica skills.
>
> 3) WRI come out with a lot of ****, like for example that publishing a
> 'Demonstration' on
>
> http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/index.html
>
> counts as an academic publication! See the FAQ at
>
> http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/FAQ.html
>
> where it says:
>
> ---------------------------------------------------
> Question. Do Demonstrations count as academic publications?
>
> Answer. Yes. Every Demonstration undergoes a rigorous review process that 
> checks
> for quality, clarity, and accuracy, so you can count them as academic 
> publications.

Wow.  LOL.

> ---------------------------------------------------
>
> It sure would be easy to get a lot of publications and a chair if one could
> write papers as simple as this demo!
>
> http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/SineAndCosineGraphGenerator/
>
> So how can one judge the popularity of Sage vs Mathematica? Well, given they
> both have one main public support forum:
>
> Sage - sage-supp...@googlegroups.com
> Mathematica - comp.soft-sys.math.mathematica
>
> a comparison of the number of recent posts to these forums might give us a 
> clue.
> (Can anyone find a better way? Is this a totally flawed metric?).

Here's another metric that I like, which measures number of users.   At

                 http://www.wolfram.com/company/background.html

they say "With a tightly knit core of fewer than 500 employees ....".
 So, let's assume

    1. 500 employees
    2. Each employee costs WRI $150K/year on average (including benefits, etc.)
    3. An average Mathematica user pays $100/license.   This includes
site licenses, which
might cover 100 active users (say, at a uni) and cost $10K, say.

That gives about 750,000 active users:

   500*150000/100 =  750000

This is not so far of from Wolfram's claims.

Last time I did this calculation (in mid 2007), the Wolfram page
listed 550 employees... and when I talked to Eric Weisstein in January
2008 at the AMS meeting he said they had been hiring a lot of new
people.  Given the current statement of "less than 500 employees", it
looks like they may have had some significant layoffs, due to the
financial climate in 2008-2009.

By the way, there are I think about 1500 fulltime employees at the
company that makes MATLAB.

 -- William

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