Mbah, James L, SBud, Tbumi, Para sobat YTH. Ambil pengalaman pahit gue. Mudah2-an tidak terjadi dipara sobat.Nah ini ada lampiran gres buat OB. NB : ada yang tak tertulis disekolah soal saham, yaitu : Sabar & PD. he3X....
Strategies for a scary market You'll never know when the exact bottom will be reached in a falling market. But buying high-quality stocks at reasonable prices can pay off no matter what. By Michael Sivy, Money Magazine editor at large November 12 2007: 2:14 PM EST (Money Magazine) -- The Dow tumbled last week, and the bad news is spreading. Concerns are mounting that a recession is already under way and that a bear market is inevitable. In times like these, it's more important than ever to have a focused investing strategy and to stick with it. You can destroy your long-term returns by dumping stocks after the worst of a decline is already over and missing the rebound. And it's equally easy to hurt your returns by going bargain hunting too soon and being blindsided by a second wave of share price declines. In fact, it's foolish to try to outguess short-term fluctuations. Very few investors can do it consistently enough to beat the market over the long term. Instead, you should concentrate on positioning yourself to maximize your long-term profits. The good news in today's turmoil is that you'll get plenty of opportunities to buy top-quality stocks at bargain prices over the next few months. What's going on At the moment, we're experiencing the stock market version of a perfect storm, where everything seems to be going wrong at the same time. If you're an optimist, you can make the case that current problems are overstated. A weak dollar boosts exports and the overall economy. It's only a problem if it encourages inflation, which so far hasn't happened. Oil above $90 is a concern, but it has been bid up a lot by speculators, well above a fair market price. With a slowing economy, we could see the price of a barrel of oil drop by $20 over a relatively short period of time. Falling home prices and subprime loan defaults are hitting some markets very hard, but the problems are local and can be absorbed given the overall real estate market and the total volume of outstanding mortgage loans. If you're a pessimist, of course, you believe that share prices have a lot further to fall. There's no way to tell which view is right. There are really only two things you can be sure of in a situation like this. The first is that stock prices already reflect all the bad news we know about. The market will fall further only if earnings are even worse than expected, if oil prices keep going up more than expected, or if losses on bad loans are even bigger than expected. In fact, sentiment is currently so negative that it wouldn't take much good news to spark a rebound. The second is that no one really knows how bad things are going to get. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress last week that the economy is slowing but that it will likely pick up again by spring. Bernanke acknowledged, however, that it's hard for economists to identify turning points. What to consider buying Traders may have to worry about short-term market risks. But if you're investing for retirement or any other major financial goal that's a decade or more away, you've got a much easier job. The key ways to minimize your investing risk are well-known: Buy high-quality stocks and diversify as broadly as you can, owning shares of companies in a variety of industries.
