Thanks, Feter. Tapi apa perlunya/tujuannya kita menghitung BV. Bukankah intangible asset itu (contohnya goodwill kan?) tidak signifikan dan belum tentu setiap perusahaan ada? Sorry ya, kalo pertanyaannya stupid.
Salam, Gandhi From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of feter Sent: 02 Oktober 2007 14:11 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: RE: BUMI vs. PTBA RE: [obrolan-bandar] UBS: BUMI Sector high earnings growth driving value, higher price target Rp4,250 Pak BV itu didapat dari Total Equity - Intangible Assets. Nah PBV = Market Price / BV Itu menurut saya pak, CMIIAW _____ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Gandhi Hadiwitanto Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2007 12:45 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: BUMI vs. PTBA RE: [obrolan-bandar] UBS: BUMI Sector high earnings growth driving value, higher price target Rp4,250 Kalau liat data-data keuangan di bawah ini, bisakah BUMI rally seperti PTBA yang pada bulan Mei - Juni lalu naik dari 3.950 ke 7.250? Saya tidak ahli analisa laporan keuangan, tapi kalo lihat PER, ROE, ROA dan nett profit to sales, BUMI jauh lebih strong. Hanya PBV-nya BUMI yang kemahalan, juga rasio utangnya (DER) kalah bagus. (BTW, PBV dan BV itu menghitungnya bagaimana ya? Rasio ini definisinya apa ya?) PTBA: Most Recent Fiscal Quarter : 30 Jun 2007 Sales : 1.83 T PER : 25.95 Net Profit : 302.22 B EPS : 262 Asset : 3.25 T BV : 1016 Liability : 900.09 B PBV : 6.69 Equity : 2.34 T NAVS : 1411 I. Shares : 2.3 B DER : 0.38 Mkt. Cap : 15.67 T ROE(%)* : 25.82 ROA(%)* : 18.6 * Annualised NPM(%)* : 16.53 BUMI: Most Recent Fiscal Quarter : 30 Jun 2007 Sales : 10.44 T PER : 5.3 Net Profit : 6.54 T EPS : 674 Asset : 23.47 T BV : 412 Liability : 13.28 T PBV : 8.68 Equity : 8.0 T NAVS : 1209 I. Shares : 19.4 B DER : 1.66 Mkt. Cap : 69.37 T ROE(%)* : 163.37 ROA(%)* : 55.71 * Annualised NPM(%)* : 62.62 Salam, Gandhi From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of budi suryono Sent: 02 Oktober 2007 11:02 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] UBS: BUMI Sector high earnings growth driving value, higher price target Rp4,250 saya masih sit tight di BUMI,yg merupakan core position,prediksi konsolidasi di 3550-3700an,hoping will make break at 3725 to make a final purchase,looking for 4500-5000?,rgds Joe Grunk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Untuk penggemar BUMI. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Indonesian Commodities 27 September 2007 UBS Investment Research Global Equity Research Indonesia Mining PT Bumi Resources Sector high earnings growth driving value . Continued volume growth We highlight Bumi Resources sector-high production growth level, which could surpass our estimates. Management has indicated 2007-09 production volume of 63-75 tonnes, in line with our assumptions. However, the recent coal price strength is likely to put upward pressure on Bumi's reserve size and, in turn, volume sales. . Expanding mining operations Management has indicated that in addition to coal mine expansion, future investment might include 1) gold and copper developments; 2) coal-bed-methane development; 3) iron-ore exploration in Mauritania; and 4) stakes in Newmont's Indonesian gold and copper operations. None of these projects are included in our valuation. . Risks The primary risks to our valuation include coal price volatility, disruptions in production and distribution, as well as energy price fluctuations. The current mining law draft revision adds a level of political risk, while there is execution risk entailed with Bumi's current expansion plans. . Valuation: higher price target Rp4,250 We base our valuation on a 16-year DCF methodology, in line with Bumi's current concessions and reserve life (adjusted for production growth). We assume a risk- free rate of 9.3% and long-term growth of 0%, which renders an 11.8% WACC. We raise our price target from Rp3,150 to Rp4,250 on our anticipated increase in reserves. Highlights (Rpbn) 12/05 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E Revenues 15,921.46 16,969.46 19,303.54 27,049.45 31,838.97 EBIT (UBS) 2,649.88 2,960.43 4,661.09 11,024.63 15,489.12 Net Income (UBS) 1,551.48 2,209.40 2,598.67 5,578.91 7,946.00 EPS (UBS, Rp) 80 114 134 288 410 Net DPS (UBS, Rp) 8 8 66 8 28 12-month rating Buy Unchanged 12m price target Rp4,250/US$0.46 Prior:Rp3,150/US$0.34 Price Rp3,400/US$0.37 RIC: BUMI.JK BBG: BUMI IJ 25 September 2007 Trading data (local/US$) 52-wk range Rp3,450-710/US$0.38-0.08 Market cap. Rp65,974bn/US$7.20bn Shares o/s 19,404m (ORD) Free float 88% Avg. daily volume ('000) 128,710 Avg. daily value (Rpm) 342,379.8 Balance sheet data 12/07E Shareholders' equity Rp11,764bn P/BV (UBS) 5.6x Net Cash (debt) Rp2,442bn Forecast returns Forecast price appreciation +25.0% Forecast dividend yield 0.3% Forecast stock return +25.3% Market return assumption 11.5% Forecast excess return +13.8% EPS (UBS, Rp) >From 12/07E To Cons. 12/06 Actual Q1Q2EQ3EQ4E - --- (7) 33 54 54 - --- 1 42 30 41 12/07E -134 8,196 12/08E -288 10,265 Performance (Rp) Stock Price (Rp) Rel. Jakarta Comp Profitability & Valuation 5-yr hist av. 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E EBIT margin % 19.0 17.4 24.1 40.8 48.6 ROIC (EBIT) % 27.0 28.0 38.7 93.0 119.7 EV/EBITDA (core) x 4.5 5.8 12.5 5.2 3.5 PE (UBS) x 9.0 7.2 25.4 11.8 8.3 Net dividend yield % 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.2 0.8 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0 50 100 150 200 07/0410/0401/0504/0507/0510/0501/0604/0607/0610/0601/0704/0707/07 Source: Company accounts, Thomson Financial, UBS estimates. (UBS) valuations are stated before goodwill, exceptionals and other special items. Price Target (Rp) (LHS) Stock Price (Rp) (LHS) Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of Rp3,400 on 26 Sep 2007 23:39 HKT Rel. Jakarta Comp (RHS) Source: UBS Andreas Bokkenheuser www.ubs.com/investmentresearch Analyst [EMAIL PROTECTED] +62-21-2554 7033 _____ Yahoo! oneSearch: Finally, mobile <http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=48252/*http:/mobile.yahoo.com/mobileweb/onesearc h?refer=1ONXIC> search that gives answers, not web links. _____ Boardwalk for $500? In 2007? Ha! Play <http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=48223/*http:/get.games.yahoo.com/proddesc?gameke y=monopolyherenow> Monopoly Here and Now (it's updated for today's economy) at Yahoo! Games.
