Kang Ocoy nih alanis di sekuritas yahh gaya omongnya persis MI hehe
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "kang_ocoy_maen_saham" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Jangan pake BV, tapi revaluasi asset... > > BV itu harga perolehan dulu.. > > maka itu BV bumi bias, contoh : waktu dia jual KPC en Arutmin emang > nilai penjualannya sesuai BV?? engga kan.. > > nah berhubung angkanya udah ketauan dari angka penjualan ke TATA kemaren.. > > diitung deh re-state nilai book value BUMI, > > asset yg berupa saham KPC & Arutmin itu dikali angka beli TATA > per-saham... > > yah sekarang sih iyah jadi kemahalan, cuman kalo kemahalan "BV > restate" nya itu dibayarin lebih gede lagi di masa depan oleh TATA ya > si harga skrg jd dapet "justifikasi" dehy.. BV yg skrg kan dicatet > dari harga perolehan BUMI dulu, ya memang tergolong rendah krn ga mark > to market ke harga replacement/taksiran... tp segini sih udah mahal > juga sih... > > nah kalo PTBA nilai re-statenya blon ketauan, kecuali ada corfin yg > bocorin nilai restate Aset PTBA jika proyek PLTU jalan.. sebelum itu > ya dikira2 ke peersnya ajah tergantung kualitas dan kuantitas aset > (EV/RESERVES)... > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Gandhi Hadiwitanto" > <gandhi.hadiwitanto@> wrote: > > > > Thanks, Feter. Tapi apa perlunya/tujuannya kita menghitung BV. Bukankah > > intangible asset itu (contohnya goodwill kan?) tidak signifikan dan > belum > > tentu setiap perusahaan ada? Sorry ya, kalo pertanyaannya stupid. > > > > > > > > Salam, > > > > Gandhi > > > > > > > > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > On Behalf Of feter > > Sent: 02 Oktober 2007 14:11 > > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > > Subject: RE: BUMI vs. PTBA RE: [obrolan-bandar] UBS: BUMI Sector high > > earnings growth driving value, higher price target Rp4,250 > > > > > > > > Pak BV itu didapat dari Total Equity - Intangible Assets. > > > > Nah PBV = Market Price / BV > > > > > > > > Itu menurut saya pak, CMIIAW > > > > > > > > _____ > > > > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > On Behalf Of Gandhi Hadiwitanto > > Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2007 12:45 PM > > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > > Subject: BUMI vs. PTBA RE: [obrolan-bandar] UBS: BUMI Sector high > earnings > > growth driving value, higher price target Rp4,250 > > > > > > > > Kalau liat data-data keuangan di bawah ini, bisakah BUMI rally > seperti PTBA > > yang pada bulan Mei - Juni lalu naik dari 3.950 ke 7.250? Saya tidak > ahli > > analisa laporan keuangan, tapi kalo lihat PER, ROE, ROA dan nett > profit to > > sales, BUMI jauh lebih strong. Hanya PBV-nya BUMI yang kemahalan, > juga rasio > > utangnya (DER) kalah bagus. (BTW, PBV dan BV itu menghitungnya > bagaimana ya? > > Rasio ini definisinya apa ya?) > > > > > > > > > > PTBA: Most Recent Fiscal Quarter : 30 Jun 2007 > > > > > > Sales > > > > : > > > > 1.83 T > > > > PER > > > > : > > > > 25.95 > > > > > > Net Profit > > > > : > > > > 302.22 B > > > > EPS > > > > : > > > > 262 > > > > > > Asset > > > > : > > > > 3.25 T > > > > BV > > > > : > > > > 1016 > > > > > > Liability > > > > : > > > > 900.09 B > > > > PBV > > > > : > > > > 6.69 > > > > > > Equity > > > > : > > > > 2.34 T > > > > NAVS > > > > : > > > > 1411 > > > > > > I. Shares > > > > : > > > > 2.3 B > > > > DER > > > > : > > > > 0.38 > > > > > > Mkt. Cap > > > > : > > > > 15.67 T > > > > ROE(%)* > > > > : > > > > 25.82 > > > > > > > > > > ROA(%)* > > > > : > > > > 18.6 > > > > > > * Annualised > > > > NPM(%)* > > > > : > > > > 16.53 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > BUMI: Most Recent Fiscal Quarter : 30 Jun 2007 > > > > > > Sales > > > > : > > > > 10.44 T > > > > PER > > > > : > > > > 5.3 > > > > > > Net Profit > > > > : > > > > 6.54 T > > > > EPS > > > > : > > > > 674 > > > > > > Asset > > > > : > > > > 23.47 T > > > > BV > > > > : > > > > 412 > > > > > > Liability > > > > : > > > > 13.28 T > > > > PBV > > > > : > > > > 8.68 > > > > > > Equity > > > > : > > > > 8.0 T > > > > NAVS > > > > : > > > > 1209 > > > > > > I. Shares > > > > : > > > > 19.4 B > > > > DER > > > > : > > > > 1.66 > > > > > > Mkt. Cap > > > > : > > > > 69.37 T > > > > ROE(%)* > > > > : > > > > 163.37 > > > > > > > > > > ROA(%)* > > > > : > > > > 55.71 > > > > > > * Annualised > > > > NPM(%)* > > > > : > > > > 62.62 > > > > > > > > Salam, > > > > Gandhi > > > > > > > > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > On Behalf Of budi suryono > > Sent: 02 Oktober 2007 11:02 > > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > > Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] UBS: BUMI Sector high earnings growth > driving > > value, higher price target Rp4,250 > > > > > > > > saya masih sit tight di BUMI,yg merupakan core position,prediksi > > konsolidasi di 3550-3700an,hoping will make break at 3725 to make a > final > > purchase,looking for 4500-5000?,rgds > > > > Joe Grunk <joe_grunk@> wrote: > > > > Untuk penggemar BUMI. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > > > > > > > > > > > Indonesian Commodities 27 September 2007 > > > > UBS Investment Research > > Global Equity Research > > Indonesia > > Mining > > PT Bumi Resources > > Sector high earnings growth driving value > > > > . > > Continued volume growth > > We highlight Bumi Resources sector-high production growth level, > which could > > > > surpass our estimates. Management has indicated 2007-09 production > volume of > > > > 63-75 tonnes, in line with our assumptions. However, the recent coal > price > > strength > > is likely to put upward pressure on Bumi's reserve size and, in > turn, volume > > sales. > > > > . > > Expanding mining operations > > Management has indicated that in addition to coal mine expansion, > future > > investment might include 1) gold and copper developments; 2) > > coal-bed-methane > > development; 3) iron-ore exploration in Mauritania; and 4) stakes in > > Newmont's > > Indonesian gold and copper operations. None of these projects are > included > > in our > > valuation. > > > > . > > Risks > > The primary risks to our valuation include coal price volatility, > > disruptions in > > production and distribution, as well as energy price fluctuations. The > > current > > mining law draft revision adds a level of political risk, while there is > > execution risk > > entailed with Bumi's current expansion plans. > > > > . > > Valuation: higher price target Rp4,250 > > We base our valuation on a 16-year DCF methodology, in line with Bumi's > > current > > concessions and reserve life (adjusted for production growth). We > assume a > > risk- > > free rate of 9.3% and long-term growth of 0%, which renders an 11.8% > WACC. > > We raise our price target from Rp3,150 to Rp4,250 on our anticipated > > increase in > > reserves. > > > > Highlights (Rpbn) 12/05 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E > > Revenues 15,921.46 16,969.46 19,303.54 27,049.45 31,838.97 > > EBIT (UBS) 2,649.88 2,960.43 4,661.09 11,024.63 15,489.12 > > Net Income (UBS) 1,551.48 2,209.40 2,598.67 5,578.91 7,946.00 > > EPS (UBS, Rp) 80 114 134 288 410 > > Net DPS (UBS, Rp) 8 8 66 8 28 > > > > 12-month rating Buy > > > > Unchanged > > > > 12m price target Rp4,250/US$0.46 > > > > Prior:Rp3,150/US$0.34 > > > > Price Rp3,400/US$0.37 > > > > RIC: BUMI.JK BBG: BUMI IJ > > > > 25 September 2007 > > > > Trading data (local/US$) > > > > 52-wk range Rp3,450-710/US$0.38-0.08 > > Market cap. Rp65,974bn/US$7.20bn > > Shares o/s 19,404m (ORD) > > Free float 88% > > Avg. daily volume ('000) 128,710 > > Avg. daily value (Rpm) 342,379.8 > > > > Balance sheet data 12/07E > > > > Shareholders' equity Rp11,764bn > > P/BV (UBS) 5.6x > > Net Cash (debt) Rp2,442bn > > Forecast returns > > > > Forecast price appreciation +25.0% > > Forecast dividend yield 0.3% > > Forecast stock return +25.3% > > Market return assumption 11.5% > > Forecast excess return +13.8% > > EPS (UBS, Rp) > > From > > 12/07E > > To Cons. > > 12/06 > > Actual > > Q1Q2EQ3EQ4E > > - > > --- > > (7) > > 33 > > 54 > > 54 > > - > > --- > > 1 > > 42 > > 30 > > 41 > > > > 12/07E -134 8,196 > > 12/08E -288 10,265 > > > > Performance (Rp) > > > > Stock Price (Rp) Rel. Jakarta Comp > > > > Profitability & Valuation 5-yr hist av. 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/ 09E > > > > EBIT margin % 19.0 17.4 24.1 40.8 48.6 > > ROIC (EBIT) % 27.0 28.0 38.7 93.0 119.7 > > EV/EBITDA (core) x 4.5 5.8 12.5 5.2 3.5 > > PE (UBS) x 9.0 7.2 25.4 11.8 8.3 > > Net dividend yield % 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.2 0.8 > > > > 0 > > 500 > > 1000 > > 1500 > > 2000 > > 2500 > > 3000 > > 3500 > > 0 > > 50 > > 100 > > 150 > > 200 > > 07/0410/0401/0504/0507/0510/0501/0604/0607/0610/0601/0704/0707/07 > > > > Source: Company accounts, Thomson Financial, UBS estimates. (UBS) > valuations > > are stated before goodwill, exceptionals and other special items. > > > > > > Price Target (Rp) (LHS) Stock Price (Rp) (LHS) > > Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on > a share > > price of Rp3,400 on 26 Sep 2007 23:39 HKT > > > > Rel. Jakarta Comp (RHS) > > > > Source: UBS > > > > Andreas Bokkenheuser www.ubs.com/investmentresearch > > > > Analyst > > Andreas.Bokkenheuser@ > > +62-21-2554 7033 > > > > _____ > > > > Yahoo! oneSearch: Finally, mobile > > > <http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=48252/*http:/mobile.yahoo.com/mobileweb/ onesearc > > h?refer=1ONXIC> search that gives answers, not web links. > > > > > > > > > > > > _____ > > > > Boardwalk for $500? In 2007? Ha! > > Play > > > <http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=48223/*http:/get.games.yahoo.com/ proddesc?gameke > > y=monopolyherenow> Monopoly Here and Now (it's updated for today's > economy) > > at Yahoo! Games. > > >
