Kang Ocoy - dibanding jadi ANALis (atau ORALis ?) itu - mending maen (bisnis) saham atau jadi trader 'aja
Happy Chuan, Aria Trader _____ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of kang_ocoy_maen_saham Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2007 9:58 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: BUMI vs. PTBA RE: [obrolan-bandar] UBS: BUMI Sector high earnings growth dri Bukan alanis, alanis mah "morisette" ateuh... dan bukan analis sekuritas, analis amatiran sajah.. kalo dibilang analis mah yah mungkin analis yg masih belon "ahli" deh... alias kacrut keneh, msih piyik, kelas buluterbang lah... yah sehari2 kerjaannya ngurus duit para calon pensiunan sajah.. --- In obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com, "dedyup" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Kang Ocoy nih alanis di sekuritas yahh gaya omongnya persis MI hehe > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com, > "kang_ocoy_maen_saham" <kang_ocoy_maen_saham@> wrote: > > > > > > Jangan pake BV, tapi revaluasi asset... > > > > BV itu harga perolehan dulu.. > > > > maka itu BV bumi bias, contoh : waktu dia jual KPC en Arutmin emang > > nilai penjualannya sesuai BV?? engga kan.. > > > > nah berhubung angkanya udah ketauan dari angka penjualan ke TATA > kemaren.. > > > > diitung deh re-state nilai book value BUMI, > > > > asset yg berupa saham KPC & Arutmin itu dikali angka beli TATA > > per-saham... > > > > yah sekarang sih iyah jadi kemahalan, cuman kalo kemahalan "BV > > restate" nya itu dibayarin lebih gede lagi di masa depan oleh TATA > ya > > si harga skrg jd dapet "justifikasi" dehy.. BV yg skrg kan dicatet > > dari harga perolehan BUMI dulu, ya memang tergolong rendah krn ga > mark > > to market ke harga replacement/taksiran... tp segini sih udah mahal > > juga sih... > > > > nah kalo PTBA nilai re-statenya blon ketauan, kecuali ada corfin yg > > bocorin nilai restate Aset PTBA jika proyek PLTU jalan.. sebelum > itu > > ya dikira2 ke peersnya ajah tergantung kualitas dan kuantitas aset > > (EV/RESERVES)... > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com, "Gandhi Hadiwitanto" > > <gandhi.hadiwitanto@> wrote: > > > > > > Thanks, Feter. Tapi apa perlunya/tujuannya kita menghitung BV. > Bukankah > > > intangible asset itu (contohnya goodwill kan?) tidak signifikan > dan > > belum > > > tentu setiap perusahaan ada? Sorry ya, kalo pertanyaannya stupid. > > > > > > > > > > > > Salam, > > > > > > Gandhi > > > > > > > > > > > > From: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com > > [mailto:obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com] > > > On Behalf Of feter > > > Sent: 02 Oktober 2007 14:11 > > > To: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com > > > Subject: RE: BUMI vs. PTBA RE: [obrolan-bandar] UBS: BUMI Sector > high > > > earnings growth driving value, higher price target Rp4,250 > > > > > > > > > > > > Pak BV itu didapat dari Total Equity - Intangible Assets. > > > > > > Nah PBV = Market Price / BV > > > > > > > > > > > > Itu menurut saya pak, CMIIAW > > > > > > > > > > > > _____ > > > > > > From: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com > > [mailto:obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com] > > > On Behalf Of Gandhi Hadiwitanto > > > Sent: Tuesday, October 02, 2007 12:45 PM > > > To: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com > > > Subject: BUMI vs. PTBA RE: [obrolan-bandar] UBS: BUMI Sector high > > earnings > > > growth driving value, higher price target Rp4,250 > > > > > > > > > > > > Kalau liat data-data keuangan di bawah ini, bisakah BUMI rally > > seperti PTBA > > > yang pada bulan Mei - Juni lalu naik dari 3.950 ke 7.250? Saya > tidak > > ahli > > > analisa laporan keuangan, tapi kalo lihat PER, ROE, ROA dan nett > > profit to > > > sales, BUMI jauh lebih strong. Hanya PBV-nya BUMI yang kemahalan, > > juga rasio > > > utangnya (DER) kalah bagus. (BTW, PBV dan BV itu menghitungnya > > bagaimana ya? > > > Rasio ini definisinya apa ya?) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > PTBA: Most Recent Fiscal Quarter : 30 Jun 2007 > > > > > > > > > Sales > > > > > > : > > > > > > 1.83 T > > > > > > PER > > > > > > : > > > > > > 25.95 > > > > > > > > > Net Profit > > > > > > : > > > > > > 302.22 B > > > > > > EPS > > > > > > : > > > > > > 262 > > > > > > > > > Asset > > > > > > : > > > > > > 3.25 T > > > > > > BV > > > > > > : > > > > > > 1016 > > > > > > > > > Liability > > > > > > : > > > > > > 900.09 B > > > > > > PBV > > > > > > : > > > > > > 6.69 > > > > > > > > > Equity > > > > > > : > > > > > > 2.34 T > > > > > > NAVS > > > > > > : > > > > > > 1411 > > > > > > > > > I. Shares > > > > > > : > > > > > > 2.3 B > > > > > > DER > > > > > > : > > > > > > 0.38 > > > > > > > > > Mkt. Cap > > > > > > : > > > > > > 15.67 T > > > > > > ROE(%)* > > > > > > : > > > > > > 25.82 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ROA(%)* > > > > > > : > > > > > > 18.6 > > > > > > > > > * Annualised > > > > > > NPM(%)* > > > > > > : > > > > > > 16.53 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > BUMI: Most Recent Fiscal Quarter : 30 Jun 2007 > > > > > > > > > Sales > > > > > > : > > > > > > 10.44 T > > > > > > PER > > > > > > : > > > > > > 5.3 > > > > > > > > > Net Profit > > > > > > : > > > > > > 6.54 T > > > > > > EPS > > > > > > : > > > > > > 674 > > > > > > > > > Asset > > > > > > : > > > > > > 23.47 T > > > > > > BV > > > > > > : > > > > > > 412 > > > > > > > > > Liability > > > > > > : > > > > > > 13.28 T > > > > > > PBV > > > > > > : > > > > > > 8.68 > > > > > > > > > Equity > > > > > > : > > > > > > 8.0 T > > > > > > NAVS > > > > > > : > > > > > > 1209 > > > > > > > > > I. Shares > > > > > > : > > > > > > 19.4 B > > > > > > DER > > > > > > : > > > > > > 1.66 > > > > > > > > > Mkt. Cap > > > > > > : > > > > > > 69.37 T > > > > > > ROE(%)* > > > > > > : > > > > > > 163.37 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ROA(%)* > > > > > > : > > > > > > 55.71 > > > > > > > > > * Annualised > > > > > > NPM(%)* > > > > > > : > > > > > > 62.62 > > > > > > > > > > > > Salam, > > > > > > Gandhi > > > > > > > > > > > > From: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com > > [mailto:obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com] > > > On Behalf Of budi suryono > > > Sent: 02 Oktober 2007 11:02 > > > To: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com > > > Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] UBS: BUMI Sector high earnings > growth > > driving > > > value, higher price target Rp4,250 > > > > > > > > > > > > saya masih sit tight di BUMI,yg merupakan core position,prediksi > > > konsolidasi di 3550-3700an,hoping will make break at 3725 to make > a > > final > > > purchase,looking for 4500-5000?,rgds > > > > > > Joe Grunk <joe_grunk@> wrote: > > > > > > Untuk penggemar BUMI. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Indonesian Commodities 27 September 2007 > > > > > > UBS Investment Research > > > Global Equity Research > > > Indonesia > > > Mining > > > PT Bumi Resources > > > Sector high earnings growth driving value > > > > > > . > > > Continued volume growth > > > We highlight Bumi Resources sector-high production growth level, > > which could > > > > > > surpass our estimates. Management has indicated 2007-09 production > > volume of > > > > > > 63-75 tonnes, in line with our assumptions. However, the recent > coal > > price > > > strength > > > is likely to put upward pressure on Bumi's reserve size and, in > > turn, volume > > > sales. > > > > > > . > > > Expanding mining operations > > > Management has indicated that in addition to coal mine expansion, > > future > > > investment might include 1) gold and copper developments; 2) > > > coal-bed-methane > > > development; 3) iron-ore exploration in Mauritania; and 4) stakes > in > > > Newmont's > > > Indonesian gold and copper operations. None of these projects are > > included > > > in our > > > valuation. > > > > > > . > > > Risks > > > The primary risks to our valuation include coal price volatility, > > > disruptions in > > > production and distribution, as well as energy price > fluctuations. The > > > current > > > mining law draft revision adds a level of political risk, while > there is > > > execution risk > > > entailed with Bumi's current expansion plans. > > > > > > . > > > Valuation: higher price target Rp4,250 > > > We base our valuation on a 16-year DCF methodology, in line with > Bumi's > > > current > > > concessions and reserve life (adjusted for production growth). We > > assume a > > > risk- > > > free rate of 9.3% and long-term growth of 0%, which renders an > 11.8% > > WACC. > > > We raise our price target from Rp3,150 to Rp4,250 on our > anticipated > > > increase in > > > reserves. > > > > > > Highlights (Rpbn) 12/05 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E > > > Revenues 15,921.46 16,969.46 19,303.54 27,049.45 31,838.97 > > > EBIT (UBS) 2,649.88 2,960.43 4,661.09 11,024.63 15,489.12 > > > Net Income (UBS) 1,551.48 2,209.40 2,598.67 5,578.91 7,946.00 > > > EPS (UBS, Rp) 80 114 134 288 410 > > > Net DPS (UBS, Rp) 8 8 66 8 28 > > > > > > 12-month rating Buy > > > > > > Unchanged > > > > > > 12m price target Rp4,250/US$0.46 > > > > > > Prior:Rp3,150/US$0.34 > > > > > > Price Rp3,400/US$0.37 > > > > > > RIC: BUMI.JK BBG: BUMI IJ > > > > > > 25 September 2007 > > > > > > Trading data (local/US$) > > > > > > 52-wk range Rp3,450-710/US$0.38-0.08 > > > Market cap. Rp65,974bn/US$7.20bn > > > Shares o/s 19,404m (ORD) > > > Free float 88% > > > Avg. daily volume ('000) 128,710 > > > Avg. daily value (Rpm) 342,379.8 > > > > > > Balance sheet data 12/07E > > > > > > Shareholders' equity Rp11,764bn > > > P/BV (UBS) 5.6x > > > Net Cash (debt) Rp2,442bn > > > Forecast returns > > > > > > Forecast price appreciation +25.0% > > > Forecast dividend yield 0.3% > > > Forecast stock return +25.3% > > > Market return assumption 11.5% > > > Forecast excess return +13.8% > > > EPS (UBS, Rp) > > > From > > > 12/07E > > > To Cons. > > > 12/06 > > > Actual > > > Q1Q2EQ3EQ4E > > > - > > > --- > > > (7) > > > 33 > > > 54 > > > 54 > > > - > > > --- > > > 1 > > > 42 > > > 30 > > > 41 > > > > > > 12/07E -134 8,196 > > > 12/08E -288 10,265 > > > > > > Performance (Rp) > > > > > > Stock Price (Rp) Rel. Jakarta Comp > > > > > > Profitability & Valuation 5-yr hist av. 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/ > 09E > > > > > > EBIT margin % 19.0 17.4 24.1 40.8 48.6 > > > ROIC (EBIT) % 27.0 28.0 38.7 93.0 119.7 > > > EV/EBITDA (core) x 4.5 5.8 12.5 5.2 3.5 > > > PE (UBS) x 9.0 7.2 25.4 11.8 8.3 > > > Net dividend yield % 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.2 0.8 > > > > > > 0 > > > 500 > > > 1000 > > > 1500 > > > 2000 > > > 2500 > > > 3000 > > > 3500 > > > 0 > > > 50 > > > 100 > > > 150 > > > 200 > > > 07/0410/0401/0504/0507/0510/0501/0604/0607/0610/0601/0704/0707/07 > > > > > > Source: Company accounts, Thomson Financial, UBS estimates. (UBS) > > valuations > > > are stated before goodwill, exceptionals and other special items. > > > > > > > > > Price Target (Rp) (LHS) Stock Price (Rp) (LHS) > > > Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based > on > > a share > > > price of Rp3,400 on 26 Sep 2007 23:39 HKT > > > > > > Rel. Jakarta Comp (RHS) > > > > > > Source: UBS > > > > > > Andreas Bokkenheuser www.ubs.com/investmentresearch > > > > > > Analyst > > > Andreas.Bokkenheuser@ > > > +62-21-2554 7033 > > > > > > _____ > > > > > > Yahoo! oneSearch: Finally, mobile > > > > > <http://us.rd. <http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=48252/*http:/mobile.yahoo.com/mobileweb/> yahoo.com/evt=48252/*http:/mobile.yahoo.com/mobileweb/ > onesearc > > > h?refer=1ONXIC> search that gives answers, not web links. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > _____ > > > > > > Boardwalk for $500? In 2007? Ha! > > > Play > > > > > <http://us.rd. <http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=48223/*http:/get.games.yahoo.com/> yahoo.com/evt=48223/*http:/get.games.yahoo.com/ > proddesc?gameke > > > y=monopolyherenow> Monopoly Here and Now (it's updated for > today's > > economy) > > > at Yahoo! Games. > > > > > >
