> ok. I think a bunch of the analysis so far in this thread has basically > assumed dense packing at teh ISP and RIR level.. which really won't happen, > in practice anyway. I was simply stating that if we follow some of the > examples today it's no where near as certain (I think) that '200' is ok to > assume.
200 might be optimistic, agreed. I think 100 is pretty well assured absent something much more profligate than current policies. > A larger point is: "so what?” Agreed. > we've run a number conversion / renumbering once... we can do it again, > better the second time, right? :) Maybe this next time we'll even plan > based on lessons learned in the v4 -> v6 slog? Technically, we’ve run one, we’re running a second one now, and yeah, hopefully lessons learned can play a part. Of course this also ignores the third transition which included a numbering transition as enterprises went from running everything else (x.25, vines, IPX, DECNET, AppleTalk, etc.) to IP. Owen